Upshot: A Republican split on foreign policy
Also: The nations gaining from the oil shock
The Upshot
May 21, 2026

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WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS FROM UPSHOT FRIENDS

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The New York Times

The Countries Profiting From the War Oil Shock, as Others Lose Out

An analysis of oil export data offers clues about which nations have benefited from higher prices, and which have lost a lot of revenue.

By Amy Fan and Rebecca F. Elliott

A map shows how many swing districts were lost, based on 2024 presidential election results, in states that passed new maps during this election cycle.

Ashley Wu

How Redistricting Is Making the Midterms Less Competitive

Across the states that have had their maps redrawn, partisan gerrymandering is eroding the number of competitive districts where elections are actually won and lost.

By Ashley Wu

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The New York Times

How Trump Has Talked About Ending the Iran War

The New York Times analyzed the president’s statements suggesting that the conflict was drawing to a close and compared them with the reality of the moment. Often, there was a wide disconnect.

By Michael Crowley, Ashley Cai and Lazaro Gamio

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The New York Times

The Secretive Conglomerate That Controls Cuba’s Economy

A shadowy state enterprise run by the military is a focal point of Washington's pressure campaign against Cuba.

By Maria Abi-Habib and Lazaro Gamio

POLLING AROUND THE NATION

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Karl Russell

Democrats’ Midterm Strength Masks Fierce Divides and Frustration, Poll Shows

Democratic voters are in a combative, anti-establishment mood, unhappy with their party and disagreeing about its best path forward, a New York Times/Siena poll found.

By Katie Glueck, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker

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The New York Times

President Trump’s Approval Rating: Latest Polls

Track the latest approval rating and polls on Americans’ approval of President Trump.

By Annie Daniel, Jon Huang, Ruth Igielnik, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Jonah Smith, Caroline Soler, Albert Sun and Rumsey Taylor

Bar charts showing whether potential Republican supporters would like to see the next Republican candidate for president follow Donald Trump’s lead or move in a new direction in general, on immigration and on Israel, according to a May Times/Siena poll. Fifty-five percent say they would like to see the candidate follow Mr. Trump’s lead in general, while thirty-seven percent say they would like to see the candidate move in a new direction. On immigration, seventy-seven percent would like to see the candidate follow Mr. Trump’s lead, while twenty percent would like to see the candidate move in a new direction. On Israel, fifty-six percent would like to see the candidate follow Mr. Trump’s lead, while thirty-eight percent would like to see the candidate move in a new direction.

Karl Russell

G.O.P. Supporters Back Trump, but a Third Seek a New Direction for the Party

While President Trump remains overwhelmingly popular within the Republican coalition, a New York Times/Siena poll found, a sizable share wants the party’s next nominee to take a different approach.

By Patricia Mazzei, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker

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Correction: The subject line of the newsletter on Monday, about President Trump’s poll numbers, contained a typo. The second phrase was supposed to say “How low can he go?” and not “How long can he go?”

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