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The Iran war seems to be at a stalemate.
Oil prices are up around 50% compared to a year ago.
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Inflation was up 3.3% in March.
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Consumer sentiment is at all time lows.
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And yet, the S&P 500 is near all time highs.
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How can this be?
It seems investors believe that nothing can hurt the mighty U.S. stock market.
And why wouldn’t they?
In the last 15 years, the deepest drawdown investors have seen was the Covid crash of 2020.
That lasted a little over a month, then turned into a bull market.
The longest drawdown was 2022, but by the end of 2023, the S&P was back to all-time highs.
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But if you’re an older investor, you might remember that the 2007 crash took until 2013 to recover.
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The point I’m making isn’t that a big market crash is coming.
(One is, we just have no idea when it’ll happen or what will cause it)
The point is that investors seem more and more willing to take risk.