| The market has moved on |
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Wall Street has just gone through a spectacular rally, driven by technology stocks, the pullback in oil prices following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and hopes for an imminent resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. Europe is not being left behind, and investors should now pay closer attention to the quarterly earnings season, which has recently begun. |
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| This week's gainers and losers |
Up:
Revolution Medicines +54.13% : A major win for the oncology-focused group. Preliminary results from a phase 3 clinical trial of its drug Daraxonrasib are encouraging. The treatment showed median overall survival of 13.2 months, versus 6.7 months for chemotherapy.
Oracle +26.77% : Investors seem to have decided that now is a good time to build positions in a sector that has broadly been sold off too heavily. Fair Isaac (+16%) and SAP (+13%) also benefited from this rebound.
CoreWeave +14.56% : The hardware arms race in artificial intelligence is picking up again in a big way. The sector is moving higher, driven by massive investment: Nvidia is injecting USD 5 billion into Intel, while Microsoft is committing USD 17.4 billion to Nebius Group over five years. Broadcom is also benefiting from this momentum, with its stock up 7%.
ITM Power +84.3% : The British electrolyzer manufacturer is soaring after securing a strategic contract with German defense group Rheinmetall. The project aims to create a network of synthetic fuel production plants for NATO.
Down:
Alcoa -10.15%: The company's Q1 2026 results missed revenue and earnings estimates, as weakness in alumina offset stronger aluminum performance despite improved overall profitability.
CarMax -12.5% : This earnings release clearly worried investors. Although the figures were broadly in line with expectations, an impairment charge was added to the balance sheet. On top of that, margins on used-vehicle sales were somewhat squeezed.
Fastenal -6.89% : The US president's decision to impose tariffs weighed on corporate earnings, and Fastenal was no exception. The group said costs rose faster than its ability to adjust prices, putting pressure on margins, which came in below target. |
| Commodities |
Energy: Iran has announced the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, a move that forms part of the ceasefire agreement reached in Lebanon. Donald Trump welcomed the announcement but nevertheless specified that the naval blockade against Iran remains in place. The United States will maintain this restriction until a bilateral agreement with Tehran is definitively signed. Even so, this reopening is bringing immediate relief to global energy markets. U.S. WTI is plunging by nearly 12% to around USD 82 (May 2026 contract). North Sea Brent is down by more than 10% and is trading at around USD 88 (June 2026 contract). The U.S. barrel has thus fallen back to its lowest level since early March and is moving away from its peak of USD 115 reached two weeks ago.
Metals: Copper is rising in London to USD 13,270. Traders believe that a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East would lower energy prices and stimulate demand. The logic is simple: if the situation calms down on a lasting basis, copper will benefit from future Fed rate cuts and renewed risk appetite. Precious metals are showing a similar trend: gold is rising above USD 4,800. Lower oil prices are easing inflation fears, which is benefiting the barbarous relic, since high interest rates make gold less attractive because it yields no income.
Agricultural products: Despite lower oil prices, grains are rising in Chicago. Wheat is trading around 604 cents per bushel, corn is up to 456 cents, and soybeans are holding at 1,175 cents. |
| Macroeconomics |
Macro: While equity markets have clearly moved on from the conflict in Iran, bond yields remain at elevated levels. This is despite Iran’s announcement that it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which helped ease tensions further on that front. Between measures aimed at cushioning the rise in energy prices and higher military spending, bond markets are bracing for larger deficits in the coming years. And although the drop in oil prices reduces the risk of a sharp inflation spike, there will still be a meaningful impact, which will likely prevent central banks from resuming rate cuts.
Crypto: In the wake of stock market indexes, bitcoin is up 7% this week and is once again flirting with USD 76,000. However, while the S&P 500 is trading at record levels, that is far from the case for BTC, which is still down 40% from its October 2025 peak, when it reached USD 126,000. The same pattern can be seen in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded USD 332 million in inflows this week, bringing total assets in these US-listed products to USD 97 billion, a level that also remains well below the USD 169 billion reached last October. The rebound is also being felt across major cryptocurrencies: ether (ETH) is up 7.5% and is now trading above USD 2,350, Solana (SOL) is gaining 8.5% around USD 88, and XRP is up 9.5% on the week, approaching USD 1.45. |
The spectacular gains in the US market in April recall the "reciprocal tariffs" scenario of spring 2025: a major scare followed by a powerful rebound. Europe had been less buoyant until Friday afternoon's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened during the ceasefire.
Beyond the geopolitical ups and downs, the coming days will be dominated by the first full major week of first-quarter corporate earnings. In the United States, Tesla, IBM, GE Aerospace, Boeing, and Philip Morris will face the market's scrutiny. In Europe, Thales, L'Oréal, ABB, EssilorLuxottica, Roche, Nestlé, and SAP will be in the spotlight.
On the macroeconomic calendar, the schedule will be light in the United States, with only March retail sales due on Tuesday. Elsewhere, UK inflation on Wednesday and Japanese inflation on Friday will frame the major economies' Flash PMI readings for April on Thursday. |
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Things to read this week
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A new acronym for sovereigns… and it's one you want to avoid
The BIFs have succeeded the PIIGS. Read more
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Jerome Powell's Succession: A Process Far From Completion
Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing is scheduled for next week, but a Republican senator remains in a position to stall the proceedings. Read more
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China's winning bet in times of crisis
While the West struggles to manage the Middle East crisis, Beijing sees an opportunity to assert its leadership status. Surging crude prices are accelerating... Read more
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More than 20 years
at your side
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