It’s been a while coming, but investors might actually be able to kick back and relax heading into the weekend. Relative calm in the Middle East means the focus can shift toward a tech-stock rally, although post-earnings reactions show the need for some restraint.

Relief that the U.S.-Iran truce appears to be holding was reinforced by a 10-day cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. Although the temporary peace is fragile and there is still minimal oil traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, traders have taken negotiations as a signal it’s safe to pile into equities. 

Tech stocks have been the sector of choice, with the Nasdaq Composite marking 12 straight days of gains. Notably both hardware and software players have been on the move, with the latter shaking off fears over artificial intelligence. Gains are accelerating among index heavyweights, with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF on track for more than a 7% jump this week. 

There are even signs of meme-stock style AI mania re-emerging. Sneaker company Allbirds rose more than sixfold on Wednesday when it said it was pivoting to renting out AI servers, with little more than a $50 million financing agreement and a dream. That seems like an overly optimistic assessment of its prospects. 

However, earnings reactions suggest there’s still caution in the market. Netflix delivered good numbers, but shareholders questioned the lack of raised guidance and the departure of co-founder and chairman of the board Reed Hastings. It wasn’t alone in the penalty box—chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and chipmaking equipment company ASML Holding were both dinged, despite strong reports and optimism about the AI boom.

On the whole, there appears to be a healthy mix of market confidence and wariness. The recent strong run in tech stocks set a high bar for earnings, with electric-vehicle maker Tesla headlining next week’s slate of reports. Investors can hang loose for now, but probably shouldn’t go overboard.

—Adam Clark

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Netflix beat first-quarter expectations, driven by a $2.8 billion breakup fee after abandoning its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, but the numbers were overshadowed by disappointing guidance for the second quarter. The streaming giant also said co-founder and chairman of the board Reed Hastings would step down.

• Hastings won’t stand for reelection at the annual meeting, choosing instead to focus on his philanthropy and other pursuits. Netflix reported first-quarter earnings of $1.23 a share and revenue of $12.25 billion. Without the deal breakup fee Netflix would have earned 58 cents a share.

• Netflix said its weak profitability guidance for the second quarter is a function of 2026 content-amortization expense schedules that are heavily weighted toward the second quarter, and that it expects operating margins to strengthen in the second half of the year.

• For the second quarter, Netflix expects 13% revenue growth, and it forecasts a second-quarter operating margin of 32.6% compared with 34.1% in the year ago quarter. There should be operating margin growth in the third and fourth quarters from the year-earlier periods to deliver its 2026 margin target.  

• Hastings told shareholders in a letter that his contribution to Netflix was a focus on member joy, building a culture that others could inherit and improve, and building a company that could be both “beloved by members and wildly successful for generations to come.”

What’s Next: Despite raising subscription prices in March to $8.99 a month with ads or $19.99 without, Netflix has the lowest cost-per-hour-watched among major paid streamers, MoffetNathanson research said. Netflix projects 2026 revenue of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion, and $3 billion from ad sales, double last year.

—Angela Palumbo, Adam Levine, and Janet H. Cho

Businesses are in for a tariff-related whipsaw. U.S. Customs and Border Protection is testing its system to issue refunds for the global tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down in February, but the administration is close to unveiling new tariffs that will replace those levies, aiming for “tariff equilibrium.”

• In a court filing, the CBP estimated the development of a claim portal for importers to seek refunds was 95% complete. Analysts expect the portal to launch next week on April 20. Owen Tedford, analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, said refunds could take up to 45 days to be distributed.

• Most importers should be able to use CBP’s automated processes and system, but not all, Tedford added. CBP said refunds can be issued electronically for about 82% of the applicable tariffs paid, or about $127 billion. The Yale Budget Lab estimated that the relevant tariff revenue was about $165 billion.

• At this week’s International Monetary Finance and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, administration officials signaled they aren’t moving away from President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and that new levies under different authorities are coming. Current investigations include excess capacity and forced labor, with 60 targets.

• Some of the tariffs the administration imposed under Section 301 against China in the first Trump term are still in place. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday said tariffs could be back in place and near the previous levels before the Supreme Court decision by July.

What’s Next: Summer will also be prime time for the other big trade cloud hanging over businesses: The renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact. The U.S. is further along with formal discussions with Mexico.

—Reshma Kapadia

Albemarle’s stock is hitting a high note, riding on the demand for lithium used in electric-vehicle batteries and energy storage systems. That commodity is realizing a bit of a price surge of its own, helping to push shares of the largest lithium miner to a new 52-week closing high on Thursday.

• Albemarle’s stock was Thursday’s best S&P 500 performer. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, trading around $23,050 a metric ton now according to Dow Jones Market Data, citing Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. In June 2025, prices were averaging $8,475 a metric ton.

• The spike in demand for lithium-ion batteries for EVs and the rapid expansion of grid-scale storage has spurred Albemarle to project that lithium demand could grow 15% to 40% this year. It says its aggressive cost-cutting initiatives could deliver up to $150 million in productivity improvements this year.

• Separately, Alcoa’s first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.40 a share on revenue of $3.19 billion missed expectations despite higher aluminum prices. First-quarter alumina production fell 5% from the fourth quarter to 2.4 million metric tons, while aluminum production was flat at 607,000 metric tons.

• Alcoa CEO Bill Oplinger said that 2 million tons of refining capacity are offline so far this year. About 9 million tons of alumina and 6 million tons of bauxite travel through the Strait of Hormuz annually, and that traffic has been disrupted by the Iran war.

What’s Next: Alcoa expects 2026 total aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, at ranges of 2.4 million to 2.6 million metric tons, and 2.6 million to 2.8 million metric tons, respectively.

—Janet H. Cho

President Trump’s pledge to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world” isn’t going as planned. Since “crypto-friendly” Trump took office, Bitcoin has sunk 28% to under $75,000. But a series of catalysts in Congress, at regulatory agencies, and in geopolitics could soon turn things around.

• Crypto fans are focused on the so-called Clarity Act. One of the White House’s priorities, the bill would cement many goals the industry has championed for years. Passage has gone from a foregone conclusion early in the year to a long shot, even though lawmakers aim for a committee vote soon.

• The bill would put most crypto trading under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than the Securities and Exchange Commission, a crypto industry goal. Clarity on regulation would make it easier for institutional investors to buy digital assets and for banks to offer their own crypto products.

• The bill has been stalled and there’s a skirmish between crypto firms and banks, which want the bill to include a prohibition on the payment of yields on stablecoins, a cryptocurrency typically pegged to the dollar. Sen. Thom Tillis hopes to release the text of a compromise this week.

• There are other hurdles. Trump has investments in digital assets firms, and many Democrats want the final version to ban him and his family from profiting from crypto. The bill’s biggest enemy is the calendar; Congress has limited time before the November midterm elections and other must-pass bills to address.

What’s Next: The Trump administration is trying other things. In the next few weeks, the SEC is expected to unveil “innovation exemptions” that could allow firms to launch pilot programs for stock trading on blockchains and other experiments to merge the worlds of traditional and decentralized finance.

—Joe Light

—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer and Rupert Steiner