Markets have been driven more by geopolitical headlines than fundamentals in recent weeks, with sharp swings triggered by developments around the Iran conflict. Despite a partial recovery, indices remain below earlier levels and elevated oil prices continue to pose risks. In this volatile environment, experts stress that disciplined investing matters more than trying to predict market moves.

Domestic mutual funds bought banking stocks worth Rs 38,000 crore in March, countering heavy FII selling of Rs 60,655 crore during the Iran war selloff. Major accumulation was seen in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Axis Bank. HDFC Bank emerged as the top pick across leading mutual fund houses, according to Prime Database estimates.

Foreign institutional investors have pulled out $18 billion from Indian equities since the Iran war began, dragging the Nifty down over 9% from its peak. Rising oil prices and capital flight have turned India from a preferred market into a cautious bet. Despite corrected valuations, global investors remain unconvinced, with weak dollar returns limiting fresh inflows.

GQG Partners, long bullish on the Adani group, modestly raised stakes in key companies during the March quarter despite mixed stock performance. It increased holdings in Adani Energy Solutions, Adani Green and Adani Enterprises. In contrast, foreign institutional investors and LIC largely maintained or reduced their exposure, reflecting a more cautious stance on the group’s risk-reward outlook.

Cathie Wood bought $11 million worth of Palantir Technologies shares, boosting ARK ETFs’ holdings to over ₹283 crore, even as Michael Burry remains bearish. The funds also sold over $10 million worth of Advanced Micro Devices shares.

Gold prices have surged nearly 60% since Akshaya Tritiya 2025, but the outlook for further gains by 2027 is complex due to geopolitical tensions and interest rate uncertainty. Despite near-term headwinds, structural factors like central bank buying and rising debt support a positive long-term view, suggesting gold as a hedge.

Nifty has rebounded 8% in April after a sharp March correction but remains below pre-war levels, signalling cautious recovery. The bounce is driven by short covering and selective buying, while persistent FII outflows, elevated crude prices and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on sentiment despite improving valuations.

HSBC Private Bank has cut its exposure to Indian equities, citing vulnerability to rising oil prices and global uncertainty amid the Iran conflict. The bank shifted allocations towards gold and defensive assets, reflecting caution on emerging Asia. Global peers have echoed concerns over earnings risks and stretched valuations in Indian markets.

Listing calls for Tata Sons intensify as Reserve Bank of India and Shapoorji Pallonji Group push for IPO, while Tata Trusts resists transparency concerns ahead of a crucial board meeting to decide future direction.

The National Stock Exchange’s Rs 20,000 crore IPO is nearing launch, with a June DRHP filing expected. The issue will be a pure OFS, allowing only shareholders who held fully paid-up NSE shares since June 2025 to sell. Eligible investors must file EOIs by April 27, 2026.