That didn’t take long—U.S. stock markets are back at record highs just weeks after almost hitting correction territory. There’s reason to believe the rally can go further, but a lot of things need to go right in a short time frame when it comes to the complexities of Iran, the Federal Reserve, and interest-rate cuts.

In less than three weeks the S&P 500 has recovered from a roughly 9% drop to close at an all-time high on Wednesday. But further gains depend on not just a peaceful conclusion in Iran but also the resolution of issues between the Fed and the White House. 

President Donald Trump has been clear on what he wants—rate cuts under his Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, set to take over from Jerome Powell in May. That could provide another leg to the tech-led stock rally by making investors more comfortable about heavy spending on artificial intelligence. 

But Warsh’s confirmation is threatened by the investigation into Powell over the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters, with Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, vowing to block a vote on Warsh while the probe is open. The congressional hearing on Warsh is set for April 21, leaving 24 days for the Senate to confirm him before Powell’s term ends. Otherwise a messy standoff looms, with Trump saying he would fire Powell if he doesn’t resign. 

And even if the Fed issue is resolved, Warsh won’t be able to deliver rate cuts on his own. He needs to bring along a majority of the Federal Open Market Committee. That requires a comfort about inflation risks which implies an end to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and repairs to damage caused to energy-linked infrastructure, estimated at up to $58 billion so far, according to analysts at Rystad.

Markets appear to be betting President Trump will come down on the market-friendly side when it comes to both Iran and Powell. But there’s plenty of room for an unpleasant surprise in the coming weeks.

—Adam Clark

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Live Nation, the entertainment juggernaut under antitrust pressure for two years, acted in a way that monopolized ticket sales, a Manhattan jury decided, siding with 34 states. The verdict comes after a five-week trial, and four days of deliberation, but the federal government had already settled its case.

• The question remains whether Live Nation Entertainment will be forced to separate from its Ticketmaster subsidiary after merging with it in 2010. The Justice Department’s settlement last month stopped short of that requirement. States may press ahead.

• The federal government and numerous state attorneys general sued Live Nation and Ticketmaster in May 2024, accusing the company of maintaining an illegal monopoly over the live entertainment industry, in violation of antitrust laws. Live Nation couldn’t be reached on Wednesday, but has previously denied antitrust behavior.

• Live Nation owns or controls bookings for hundreds of entertainment venues. Ticketmaster is a global ticket selling platform. The states said the company’s market share of concert promotion, venue management, and ticketing surpassed 70%.

• The DOJ settlement caps service fees for event organizers at 15%, creates a $280 million settlement fund for states, and limits Ticketmaster’s use of long-term exclusivity contracts. Some states participated in that settlement, but others including New York and California went to trial.

What’s Next: United Musicians and Allied Workers hailed the jury’s decision and hoped the judge would decide it warrants a full breakup of the company. California Attorney General Rob Bonta says the case returns to the judge to determine damages and penalties.

—Kit Norton and Janet H. Cho

Madison Air Solutions, a roll-up of filtration companies controlled by billionaire Larry Gies, priced at the high end of its range, becoming the biggest initial public offering of 2026 and a test of investor demand for roll-ups. Such companies typically trade at a discount to companies that primarily grow internally.

• The company raised about $2.2 billion in the offering, which priced at $27 a share Wednesday evening, exceeding the $1.5 billion raised by the Forgent Power Solutions IPO in February. At its IPO price, Madison Air is valued at $13.3 billion. It starts trading today at NYSE.

• The Madison Air deal could be benefiting from the strength in stocks representing the heating, ventilation and air conditioning industry, including Carrier Global and Trane. Investors turned to these “real economy” stocks in recent months as insulated from AI disruption, Renaissance Capital’s Matthew Kennedy says.

• Madison Air has an AI halo, but its revenue from data centers appears modest at around 13%. And its business highlights the increasing focus on air purity among businesses and individuals. Gies created Madison Air after recognizing poor indoor air quality, according to a Retail Roadshow.com presentation.

• The company had $3.5 billion in sales last year on a pro forma basis, almost entirely in North America. Madison is much smaller than Carrier, which has over $20 billion in annual sales, and is more comparable to Lennox International, which has about $5 billion. Gies will own 15% of the company post-IPO.

What’s Next: Madison Air will use the IPO proceeds to reduce its $5.7 billion debt to a more manageable $3.5 billion. In a vote of confidence, Gies will purchase $100 million of supervoting Class B shares in conjunction with the offering at the deal price.

—Andrew Bary

Companies increasingly have been pinning mass layoffs on the use of artificial intelligence, just as many AI skeptics feared. Snap has become the latest high-profile example of this, cutting 16% of its full-time workers. Whether the technology is a reason or an excuse may be beside the point.

• AI was the leading reason U.S.-based employers cited for layoffs in March, according to data from outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. AI accounted for 25% of layoffs tracked in March and 13% in the first quarter, up from just 5% throughout 2025.

• In a letter to staff, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said “rapid advancements in artificial intelligence” had enabled more streamlined workflows. Other tech companies, including Block, Atlassian, and Pinterest also cited AI in layoff announcements.

• Chemicals supplier Dow Inc. is cutting 4,500 workers as it leans into AI and automation. Andy Challenger, the chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray, said industries are testing the limits of the new technology. AI can’t completely replace jobs but it is costing jobs, he said.

• That trend isn’t yet rocking the overall labor market, which showed solid growth in March after a weak February. But workers may feel uneasy that investors are mostly rewarding large, public companies for pulling the layoff lever.

What’s Next: Out of 100 institutional investors surveyed by research firm Just Capital, just 10% expected large-scale job losses, compared to 30% of the general public. The disparity may suggest that investors see layoffs, AI-driven or not, as targeted cost-cutting rather than a warning sign for the labor market.

—Nate Wolf

Allbirds was once a Silicon Valley darling, reaching a $4 billion valuation at the zenith of its sustainable shoe brand. But then things fell apart, and last month it agreed to sell most of its assets for just $39 million. Facing oblivion, it did the only natural thing: pivoting to AI. 

• Yes, Allbirds has announced its long-term vision to deploy graphics processing units as a neocloud, the buzzy tech-world alternative to a hyperscaler. It hopes to become an AI-native cloud solutions provider using a GPU-as-a-Service model. The move revived its shares, sending them soaring 582%.

• Just last month, it agreed to sell its name and popular wool sneakers for $39 million to American Exchange Group, a brand-management company that specializes in accessories. Now it’s changing its name to NewBird AI. An institutional investor has agreed to inject $50 million, subject to shareholder approval.

• That money will go toward buying “high-performance GPU assets.” The flip is reminiscent of some other head-turning attempts at corporate rebranding to capitalize on major booms. Remember when Long Island Ice Tea changed its name to Long Blockchain during the early days of the crypto craze? 

• Allbirds went public in November 2021 at $15 a share. Annual revenue dropped from a peak of $297.8 million in 2022 to $152.5 million in 2025 and has declined in each of the past three years. Allbirds has never posted an annual profit as a public company.

What’s Next: Its $50 million may not go far among better known, deeper-pocketed AI competitors, The Wall Street Journal reported. Allbirds shareholders will vote on the American Exchange Group deal and the new financing agreement at a meeting on May 18.

—Josh Schafer and Janet H. Cho

—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer and Rupert Steiner