Good morning. In focus today: A fragile ceasefire weighs on financial markets, Canada sees the growing effects of elevated oil prices, major U.S. banks kick off earnings season, and how Coachella grew into a global tastemaker.

Iran war: U.S. military announces a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, after ceasefire talks in Pakistan end without an agreement.

Labour: Ontario is planning major reforms to its Workplace Insurance and Safety Board compensation system.

Hungary: Authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán has conceded defeat in an election, ending 16 years in power and ushering in a new regime that has pledged to repair ties with the European Union and NATO.

The squeeze: Oil prices surged above US$100 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump declared the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, as peace talks failed to yield an agreement to end the six-week conflict that has caused severe fuel shortages.

Officials from the U.S. and Iran walked away from their negotiations in Pakistan early yesterday without coming to terms that would bring an end to the war that began on Feb. 28 and has rattled global energy markets.

International benchmark Brent crude was up 7 per cent at US$102.10 a barrel after Asian markets opened. West Texas Intermediate gained 8 per cent to US$104.39.

Top central bankers and policymakers are in Washington today and through the week for the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, where debate will focus on the oil shock.

The two organizations downgraded their global growth forecasts last week owing to the war, warning that emerging markets and developing countries would be hit hardest by higher energy prices and supply disruptions.

Before the war broke out, both institutions had expected to lift their growth forecasts given the resilience of the global economy – even after accounting for the major tariffs imposed by Trump beginning last year.

The Canadian question: Consumers might have enjoyed seeing it was possible for prices at the pump to go down, too, but the price of crude oil is still about 70 per cent above prewar levels. That leap, over less than two months, is hard for many to keep pace with in spending capacity.

Canadians will soon find even more pressure in grocery stores, which are being charged extra fees by food suppliers to cover the cost of fuel.

Maple Leaf Foods and Tree of Life, the Canadian operation of a U.S. distributor of natural, specialty and organic food products, are among the companies that have already sent fuel-related charges to wholesale distributors and grocery retailers, The Globe’s Mariya Postelnyak, Susan Krashinsky Robertson and Kate Helmore reported.

Those effects will prove difficult to unravel even if the ceasefire in Iran proves durable. It would take several months to restore supply chains anywhere close to their prewar performance, and the costs associated with those backups will continue to cascade down from shippers, distributors and eventually consumers.

Building a mystery: Just how far those costs are spreading across Canada might be reflected in a few key economic reports this week — including a snapshot of the real-estate market.

Building permits, which track the value of approved construction projects, rose in January because of investment in commercial and industrial construction.

But housing activity showed signs of strain. Canada’s residential real estate market has been mired in a slump: national home resales have declined for four consecutive months through February and are expected to continue along that trajectory, economists at the Royal Bank of Canada wrote.

Elevated inflation, which keeps borrowing costs higher, isn’t going to help bring buyers back into the market. In Ontario, the new-home market is heating up after sales tax rebates went into effect this month, but it’s too early to say whether the move will revive a sector that has been in a slump for years.

On Wednesday, advance estimates from Statistics Canada have hinted at rebounds in both manufacturing and wholesale trade in February after a weak start to the year, supported by higher production and shipping of transportation equipment and manufactured food products like processed meat.

Bank on it: Investors will be watching for ripple effects from the war to reach earnings of major lenders reporting this week.

The first of the major U.S. banks to report this week is Goldman Sachs, whose chief executive warned on Friday of a “reckoning” for the American economy over a national debt climbing to US$40-trillion. That’s about the size of the country’s annual economic output, and larger than the combined economies of Japan, Germany and India.

JPMorgan, the largest lender in the U.S., headlines tomorrow’s earnings. Jamie Dimon cautioned in his annual CEO letter to shareholders last week that oil and commodity price shocks could keep inflation elevated higher and longer than markets expect.

Music to marketers’ ears: Influencers and retail executives might be emerging from the first weekend of Coachella rocking minor headaches and muddy boots, but rolling in data about what new trends are resonating with consumers.

The two-weekend event at the Empire Polo Club in Indio, Calif., has grown from a money-losing venture in 1999 into a major platform shaping trends across music and fashion – accelerated by social-media influencers who hold more sway than many paid advertising campaigns.

YouTube livestreams multiple stages of the festival to a global audience, drawing millions of viewers. British Vogue reported a 35-per-cent increase in searches for sequinned pieces during