Investors returning from the long weekend are braced for another stretch of stock market whiplash from developments in the Iran war. But this week may hold the most material updates yet.

Markets are once again digesting conflicting messages. First, President Donald Trump issued an expletive-ridden threat that Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz blockade by Tuesday, and more recently a report suggested that U.S. and regional mediators are pushing for a 45-day cease-fire that could end the war. Though the chances of a breakthrough remain slim, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

Ships carrying gas from Qatar also look to be making their first run at the strait, and their success—or failure—will be consequential for energy markets.

Further headlines that pull sentiment each way will likely persist. But macroeconomic data this week may shine a light on the tangible impacts of the war so far.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting are due Wednesday. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell espoused a “wait and see” attitude on the Iran war, minutes could reveal more candor from other Fed officials about the economic impact and clues about the future path of interest rates.

Friday brings the release of U.S. consumer-price index (CPI) inflation data from March, among the first real looks at the extent to which the global fuel crisis is hitting American consumers. 

While sporadic signs of a resolution have worked to keep stock markets afloat, it is impossible to hide from macro indicators like inflation. If CPI data show a biting price-spike, that will be among the first major red flags for the U.S. economy, which could trigger a spiral in stocks as long as the conflict stretches on. 

Investors who have tried to tune out the Iran noise will want to pay attention.

—Jack Denton

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It was another weekend of threats by President Donald Trump, and shifting attack deadlines and targets.

• Trump told various journalists on Sunday that he was going to blow up Iran if no deal came soon. That followed his threat Saturday that Iran had 48 hours to make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz or he would rain hell down on them. Previously, he threatened to strike Iran’s power plants.

• On Sunday, Trump was talking about Tuesday as the deadline, and he added Iran’s bridges to the targets the U.S. would hit. Trump told ABC News that if Iran doesn’t heed his demands, “we’re blowing up the whole country,” and he told The Hill that no infrastructure targets were off the table.

• The Speaker of Iran’s Parliament described Trump’s moves as “reckless” and called for ending “this dangerous game.” In translated remarks attributed to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on social media, he said the whole region was going to burn because of the U.S.-Israel attacks.

• Eight OPEC members and allies raised concerns about the toll of the Iran war on oil supplies and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region. The group led by Saudi Arabia met virtually on Sunday and agreed to raise oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels a day beginning in May.

What’s Next: Trump wouldn’t give The Wall Street Journal a definitive answer on the war’s ending, but he told Fox News that an Iran deal could come as early as today. He punctuated a day of conflicting messaging with a cryptic social media post: “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”

—Liz Moyer

The March consumer price index on Friday will be the first inflation report to reflect the fallout from the war in Iran. Economists will also get fresh insights into economic growth, consumer sentiment, and what Federal Reserve officials considered during their March policymaking meeting.

• The core consumer price index will show how much higher energy costs have increased prices. The average U.S. gasoline price surpassed $4 a gallon last week, climbing more than 35% in five weeks, and headline inflation is expected to have risen 1% from February, the most since June 2022. 

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that March inflation jumped 3.4% year over year, up one percentage-point from February, and potentially the highest annual increase since April 2024. Core CPI is projected to increase 2.7%, from 2.5% previously. 

• On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the February personal consumption expenditures price index. Economists forecast a 2.8% annual increase, matching January’s data. The core PCE price index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3%, from 3.1%.

• The BEA is expected to report a 0.7% annual increase in its final estimate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth, the same as last month. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index for April is expected to be 52, down from 53.3 in late March.

What’s Next: The Fed on Wednesday will release the minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, when policymakers voted to keep interest rates steady. Their Summary of Economic Projections anticipates only one quarter-point interest-rate cut this year.

—Dan Lam and Janet H. Cho

Microsoft aims to be more self-sufficient in artificial intelligence, pursuing new research avenues that it hopes will put its AI models on par with rivals, after reworking the deal with ChatGPT parent OpenAI in 2025. Its once 27% stake in OpenAI may have been diluted after OpenAI’s $122 billion fundraising.

• Microsoft’s 2019 investment in OpenAI tied the two companies together. Microsoft’s then-nascent Azure cloud unit would become OpenAI’s sole cloud provider, and Microsoft wouldn’t compete with OpenAI to build superintelligence, or machines that can perform knowledge work better than any person.

• But as ChatGPT boomed in 2023 and 2024, both OpenAI and Microsoft began reassessing the deal. Neither wanted to be tied to a single vendor for something so important. Last fall, the agreement was loosened so that OpenAI could use other cloud providers, and Microsoft could pursue superintelligence.

• Microsoft has begun a program to produce “frontier” models to compete with ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, and some Chinese models. Just after the OpenAI semi-divorce, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman announced a new superintelligence unit at Microsoft in November.

• In January, an internal AI resource battle emerged. Explaining missed expectations for Azure sales growth, CFO Amy Hood said Microsoft reserved data center capacity for its own services and research. It couldn’t satisfy all internal and external computing demand at the same time.

What’s Next: That internal-external tension has affected Suleyman’s project. While releasing new AI models for internal uses, he described them to the FT as “mid-class” and not in competition with the best frontier models, citing the internal compute shortage as the limiting factor. He predicted it would clear up this year.

—Adam Levine

Universal Pictures and Nintendo’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie scored the weekend’s biggest box office hit domestically and internationally, claiming the top spot of the weekend leaderboard with an estimated $372.5 million in global ticket sales through Sunday.

• The PG-rated animated adventure, distributed by Comcast-owned Universal, racked up $190.1 million domestically in its first five days, nearly as much in domestic ticket sales as Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary has sold over three weekends ($217.2 million), according to Comscore.

• It raked in an average $30,795 per location across 4,252 screens in North America, even though the majority of tickets were sold at lower children’s ticket prices, making those box office revenue thresholds even more impressive, Comscore’s head of marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian said.

Super Mario Galaxy sold $182.4 million internationally, making its estimated $372.5 million total the largest global box office debut since Walt Disney and 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash in December 2025. The 2023 Super Mario movie sold $204 million in its first five days.

Project Hail Mary sold another $30.7 million in its third week, bringing its global total to $420.7 million, Comscore said. Walt Disney’s and Pixar’s animated Hoppers sold $5.8 million in tickets in its fifth week, bringing its global total to $332.2 million.

What’s Next: This weekend’s $195.7 million in box office brings Hollywood’s year-to-date revenue to $2.05 billion, up 26% from this point in 2025, according to Comscore. Horror films Hunting Matthew Nichols and Faces of Death both open Friday, along with Universal’s romantic comedy You, Me & Tuscany.

—Janet H. Cho

—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer and Callum Keown