The world got some light relief from the U.S. war with Iran with the Academy Awards ceremony making the news amid something of a comeback year for Hollywood and the film industry.

One Battle After Another, an epic tale focused on an aging revolutionary forced back into conflict with the government, dominated the major Oscars.

The financial world’s return to the markets this week might be best described as One Barrel After Another, an epic tale focused on an age-old conflict forced back into the headlines to drive crude prices higher and unsettle global markets.

And perhaps, because so many investors have seen this movie before, the reaction is a bit more sanguine. U.S. stocks have fallen around 3.6% since the first attacks on Iran last month.

Oil is still powering higher, as Iran hits ports in the United Arab Emirates following the U.S. bombing of its key Kharg Island export hub over the weekend, but the moves feel less frenetic than they did last week, when Brent tested the $120 mark. 

Away from crude markets, we’re seeing risk-on developments in Bitcoin, which is up nearly 5% over the past week, as well as the U.S. dollar, which is modestly lower and seeing a bit less action in the flight-to-safety trade. 

But (spoiler alert) much like One Battle After Another, it’s unlikely markets are going to get a definitive ending to the ongoing drama.

The conflict is no closer to conclusion than it was two weeks ago, oil remains north of $100 and stagflation risks will linger well into the summer months. 

It’s just One Barrel After Another.

—Martin Baccardax

Barron’s Live: Saira Malik brings a deep understanding of markets and a wide investment lens to her role as chief investment officer of Nuveen. She joins Barron’s editors Lauren Rublin and Al Root today at noon for a discussion of the economy, markets, and investment opportunities in equities and beyond. Barron’s has recognized Malik for many years as one of the 100 Most Influential Women on Wall Street. Sign up here.

Get more of the journalism you love. Choose Barron’s as a preferred source in Google.

Nvidia’s artificial intelligence event kicks off today with CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote. Investors will want to hear about the supply outlook for critical components like wafers, memory, and optics, the effect of the Iran war on power costs and overseas demand, and details on future products.

• AI chip spending in recent years has focused on building and optimizing models, called training, whereas in coming years it will shift more toward putting those models to work, called inference. Training favors highly parallel processing. Last year, AI chips accounted for 88% of spending.

• In training, cost has been an afterthought, but in inference, where the money will be made, cost is key, and computing needs are mixed. A privately held company called Groq specializes in chips called LPUs, or language processing units, and Nvidia has paid $20 billion to license its technology.

• Look for Nvidia to discuss how Groq LPUs will help broaden and customize its future chip portfolio. That could help the company hold market share with hyperscalers that can produce their own chips. But the stock might not break out that much during the conference, which goes to Thursday.

• Nvidia stock was down 8% this year at one point in early February, but it has drifted back and was recently down just 1%. Meanwhile, a consensus of estimates has free cash flow for the company rising 85% this fiscal year through January 2027, to more than $178 billion. 

What’s Next: That growth rate would mark a sharp acceleration from last year. A big part of the debate around Nvidia stock involves how long hyperscalers will continue spending so richly. Barclays has predicted that industrywide capex will peak in 2028 at about $1 trillion.

—Jack Hough

The Federal Reserve makes its next interest-rate decision this week amid ongoing drama with Chair Jerome Powell, whose lawyer has told federal prosecutors that he likely would remain on the board of governors past the expiration of his chairmanship if the criminal investigation into him stays open.

• The lawyer’s conversation was described in newly unsealed court documents late Friday, and it came from prosecutors, not Powell’s team. But if accurate, it means the fate of the Fed’s leadership transition now is directly tied to the outcome of a Justice Department investigation.

• Powell’s term as Fed chair expires May 15, when by tradition, he would leave his board seat when a successor is sworn in. But Powell’s term as a sitting governor doesn’t expire until January 2028, meaning nothing in the law requires him to go. If he stays, he could remain a voting member.

• Powell’s lawyer told U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro that Powell believes Fed independence requires he not be pushed out; that he would not leave his board seat when his chairmanship expires if the investigation remained open; and that while not guaranteed, a different outcome might be possible if the probe were dropped.

• The Fed declined to comment. But in another unsealed document the Fed filed with the court, Powell’s legal counsel says that Powell’s resignation was never meant to be used as a bargaining chip with the Justice Department, and suggesting he offered to resign in exchange for dropping the probe was “incorrect.”

What’s Next: The Fed received grand jury subpoenas in January, but last week Chief Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia quashed them, saying the government didn’t present evidence that Powell committed a crime. Pirro vowed to appeal.

—Nicole Goodkind

If Berkshire Hathaway wanted to get more aggressive with its stock buybacks, it could probably repurchase over $50 billion of stock annually, based on its most recent purchase. That’s about 5% of its outstanding shares, based on Berkshire’s market value of nearly $1.1 trillion.

• Many Berkshire investors want the company to get more aggressive with stock repurchases because they consider the shares undervalued and want the company to draw down its cash reserves. 

Barron’s $50 billion-plus estimate is based on Berkshire’s about $225 million in share repurchases on March 4, when it resumed buybacks for the first time since May 2024. The amount is doable given Berkshire’s earning power of about $45 billion annually and its $373 billion in cash reserves.

• With about 250 trading days a year, Berkshire could repurchase $56 billion of stock if it continued repurchases at a pace of $225 million a day. CEO Greg Abel recently said that Berkshire buys back stock when its shares trade below intrinsic value “conservatively determined.”

• Berkshire doesn’t disclose its estimate of intrinsic value, but its stock now trades for about 1.5 times the company’s year-end 2025 book value, in the middle of its range in recent years. 

What’s Next: Although Berkshire can buy nearly 25% of daily dollar volume based on Securities and Exchange Commission guidelines, Barron’s is assuming that Berkshire doesn’t want to buy back more than 10%. That could move the stock and undercut Berkshire’s goal of repurchasing stock as inexpensively as possible.

—Andrew Bary and Janet H. Cho

Ten aviation CEOs from the nation’s largest passenger and cargo airlines—including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines—urged Congress to end the partial government shutdown that has led to long airport security lines and disrupted the agency charged with airport security.

• They want Congress to fix things so Transportation Security Administration officers, air-traffic controllers, and others in critical airport security roles get paid regardless of the status of federal government funding. This is the second government shutdown in six months requiring essential employees to work without pay.

• Their letter comes as passengers endure long lines at airport security checks. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told Fox’s Sunday Morning Futures that 300 TSA agents have quit and the number of call-outs are double what they were before the shutdown began last month.

• Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has stalled while lawmakers battle over reforms for DHS’ Immigration and Customs Enforcement after two American citizens were killed in Minneapolis. The CEOs of Alaska Air, Atlas Air, FedEx Airline, JetBlue Airways, and UPS also signed the letter.

• Some airports including Denver International, Seattle-Tacoma International, Harry Reid International in Las Vegas, and Cleveland Hopkins International, are collecting gas and grocery gift cards, diapers, nonperishable food, and personal items for TSA officers and other federal airport employees working without pay.

What’s Next: The aviation CEOs wrote that “With spring break travel in full swing, FIFA World Cup 2026 right around the corner and celebrations for America’s 250th birthday throughout the year, the stakes are especially high.” They said 93% of Americans recently surveyed said they support paying federal aviation workers.

—Janet H. Cho

Private-credit funds are sitting at the epicenter of a $3 trillion-dollar market that’s causing a bigger—and possibly more damaging—headache on Wall Street than the U.