Flagship

US refueling plane crashes in Iraq

Four US crew members were killed when a tanker plane accidentally crashed in Iraq, adding to the mounting cost of the Iran war. It is the fourth US manned aircraft lost since the Iran war began; three F-15E fighters were shot down last month in a friendly fire incident. None of the air losses came from enemy action, but Iran’s weapons are finding targets; as well as the 11 known US service members killed and around 140 wounded, 16 commercial ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf. Some 80 oil and gas tankers a day typically traversed the Strait of Hormuz before the war, The New York Times noted. Now, barely one or two ships can make the run.

Oil closes above $100

Stock markets slumped and oil closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 as the war spooked investors. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Thursday, its worst single-day performance of the war so far, while a key European index fell 0.6%. Asian markets were hit particularly hard; a monthslong rally brutally ended in South Korea, where industry is heavily reliant on raw materials sourced from the Middle East. US gas prices rose for a 12th straight day. The White House “significantly underestimated” Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, CNN reported, and although Washington has pledged to start escorting tankers, it is “not ready” to do so yet, the Treasury secretary said.

Russia is Iran war’s biggest winner

The Iran war’s biggest winner so far is Russia. Soaring oil prices pushed the White House to lift sanctions on the sale of Russian crude currently at sea, freeing hundreds of millions of barrels; oil prices “barely budged” on the news, The New York Times reported. Moscow was already profiting from the war. The same high prices have boosted its revenues by $150 million a day, with Urals crude up 40% month-on-month. It is “a stark reversal in fortunes,” the Financial Times noted: Moscow had been struggling with falling oil prices and lower sales to India under Washington’s pressure. The Kremlin will also be pleased the US has used huge numbers of munitions, notably advanced missiles that Ukraine badly needed.

EU, Canada look beyond US

Two of the US’ closest historical allies made moves to strengthen their positions in the face of the threats from the Trump administration. Canada announced more than $25 billion in defense and infrastructure projects in the Arctic following US President Donald Trump’s threats of annexing territory there. Canada’s leader — who has called on middle powers to work together to resist the domination of hegemons — said Ottawa was taking “responsibility for defending our sovereignty.” Elsewhere, the EU’s chief diplomat called for greater unity among bloc members in the face of what she said were Trump’s efforts to sow disunity. “The US has been very clear that they want to divide Europe. They don’t like the European Union,” Kaja Kallas said.

Canada, Mexico defend US trade

Canada and Mexico defended their trilateral trade agreement with the US following Washington’s threats to withdraw from the $2 trillion pact. The world’s biggest economy is the main market for Canadian and Mexican exports, though Washington’s repeated criticism of the USMCA pact has pushed Ottawa and Mexico City to seek trade allies elsewhere. But experts say that, because their economies are so deeply integrated with the US’, a pivot will be difficult; Mexico’s share of exports to the US actually rose last year. Canada and Mexico have sought to assuage Washington’s worries — including that they are becoming back doors for Chinese goods — amid a review of the pact, though Ottawa’s ambassador to the US admitted significant “headwinds” remain.

ByteDance sources restricted chips

TikTok’s parent company is sidestepping US restrictions to use Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips. ByteDance has gained access to the Blackwell semiconductors by hiring computing power from a Malaysia-based company, fueling the Chinese firm’s ambition of becoming a global AI leader, The Wall Street Journal reported. Though some have argued that China’s abundant energy and manufacturing capacity give it an edge in the global AI race, Chinese executives say Washington’s restrictions on sales of the most advanced semiconductors are stifling the country’s AI development. Others argue that Beijing’s short-term priority is focusing more on AI adoption than development. “Both superpowers fret about falling behind,” The Economist wrote, but “it may start to look like they are running in different races.”

Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg joins Mixed Signals on the one-year anniversary of the scoop known as Signalgate — when he was accidentally added to a top-secret Trump administration group chat. Max and Ben ask if anything actually changed after the scandal, how US President Donald Trump reacted to the story, and why the president invited Goldberg to the Oval Office afterwards. Goldberg also talks about falling out with Benjamin Netanyahu, The Washington Post’s struggles under Jeff Bezos, and why he believes The Atlantic’s mix of magazine storytelling and newspaper reporting is the key to its success.

VW partners with Chinese EV firm

Volkswagen began production of its new EV, jointly manufactured with China’s Xpeng, as it seeks to turn its fortunes around after a tough year that saw it lose major market share in China. The German car giant reported a 44% year-on-year fall in profits and said it would cut 50,000 jobs, after being badly hit by competition from Chinese firms such as Geely and BYD. The latter is the top-selling brand in China, while VW, the market leader in the country as recently as 2023, has fallen to third place. The ID. Unyx 08 is one of two models under the VW-Xpeng partnership, and the European firm hopes it will allow it to regain market share in its largest market.

African mining powers seek value

The Democratic Republic of Congo opened its first gold refining facility, joining other African nations seeking to capture more of the mining supply chain. Several regional nations have recently become key targets in a great power competition between the US and China for greater control of the continent’s resources. Some are fearful, however, that an old pattern of extraction without development may be settling in. In response, governments across the continent have courted foreign investment to help build their manufacturing base, including for mineral and metal refining. Africa will only “win” if it can build the “regional infrastructure and value chains that turn mineral wealth into shared prosperity,” a UN official argued in The Africa Report.

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