Your Evening Briefing

March 05, 2026

Stocks sink as the price of US crude oil surges

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 sank while US crude oil hit its highest price since 2024. The energy sector led gains, while consumer staples fared the worst as gasoline prices will mechanically work as a tax on consumption.

Bitcoin broke through a key resistance band at the $70,000 level, but is now stalling in the $71,000 to $72,000 range as the war in Iran is pressuring risk assets and caution is ruling the market.

Stocks that moved higher:

The spike in oil sent Coterra Energy, Phillips 66, Devon Energy, APA Corporation, and Valero higher.
Broadcom jumped as CEO Hock Tan forecasted “in excess of $100 billion” in AI chip sales next year during yesterday’s post-market Q1 earnings call.
Broadcom also reported that major customers are sticking with copper cables in chip racks through 2028, sending Credo Technology Group, whose active electrical cables increase the transmission capabilities of these copper cables, surging. Advanced optics companies Lumentum and Coherent slumped on the news.
The Trade Desk jumped on a report that the company is talks with OpenAI to help sell ads.
Berkshire Hathaway rose as the company resumed share buybacks, with CEO Greg Abel using the equivalent of his full after-tax salary to buy stock.

Stocks that moved lower:

The spike in oil sent Allegiant, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Alaska Air, and Southwest Airlines lower due to worries of higher fuels costs
Consumer staples Dollar General and Walmart — whose less-affluent customers can be especially sensitive to higher gasoline prices — also fell as oil prices rose.
Advanced Micro Devices slid on a report that the US government is drafting restrictive rules for AI chip exports.
IREN sank after announcing a super-sized equity offering of as much as $6 billion.
StubHub plunged on a big earnings miss in a Taylor Swift-less Q4.
American Eagle sank despite posting stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings and revenue as rising costs weighed on profitability.
Rigetti Computing dropped after reporting that its Q4 sales fell short of expectations after the bell yesterday.
BJ’s Wholesale Club slumped on a Q4 sales miss and disappointing 2026 guidance.

As oil spikes, energy stocks again lead US markets

Oil market participants are currently putting almost as big a premium for a barrel of Brent crude delivered as soon as possible relative to future delivery as they did during the energy shock that followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Read more.

The war is a mega rotation trade

War is not kind. It is mean (reversion).

Read more.

The average price per gallon for gasoline in the US shot up 27 cents from last week to $3.25, a 9% increase, according to new data from AAA, as escalating tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher. Read more.

Paramount’s Ellison backs $6 billion WBD merger “synergies” figure, says company won’t sell iconic lots
Paramount CEO David Ellison pushed back on rumors fueled by Netflix’s Ted Sarandos that the WBD merger would result in $16 billion in cuts.
Nvidia reportedly halts production of H200 chips for sale to China in favor of Vera Rubin ramp
Vera Rubin is a safer bet than hoping that US and Chinese leadership will bring clarity to this haze.
Ethereum stays range-bound as daily ETF inflows spike to highest since January
On Wednesday, spot ethereum ETFs recorded $169.4 million worth of inflows.

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