By Jorge Liboreiro
The decision by the United States and Israel to strike Iran in an attempt to eradicate its ballistic capabilities and nuclear programme has violently upended the balance of power in the Middle East and forced Europe to reckon with uncomfortable questions on international law.
The continent’s mix-and-match reaction to the war is reminiscent of the timid response to the American operation in early January that removed Nicolás Maduro as president of Venezuela. Back then, the EU scrambled to put together a joint statement that fell short of condemning what most legal scholars deemed a blatant breach of national sovereignty.
There’s another notable parallelism between then and now.
Exactly as he did in January, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has broken ranks with his fellow EU leaders to denounce Donald Trump’s actions as unlawful. International law, he argued, should be applied and upheld without exceptions, be it in Ukraine, Gaza, Venezuela and Iran. Consequently, Madrid refused to allow the US army to use the military bases in the country to conduct strikes on Iran.
Trump took it badly, calling Spain a “terrible” ally.
“We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain,” he said, speaking next to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who was visiting the White House.
This, it must be said, wasn’t the first time that the commander-in-chief threatened reprisals against Spain. Last year, he raised the spectre of punitive tariffs at least twice after Sánchez refused to endorse NATO’s new 5% target, arguing it was “incompatible” with his progressive worldview. The tariffs against Spain never happened (though tariffs, in general, did).
Now, the threat is much more extreme: an all-out trade embargo, which would have consequences for the entire bloc.
The European Commission swiftly went on the record to say it stands “ready to act if necessary to safeguard EU interests”. French President Emmanuel Macron called Sánchez to express solidarity “in response to the recent threats of economic coercion”. Meanwhile, Merz faced backlash for keeping quiet as Trump berated Spain. He later voiced support in a separate press conference.
In a televised address the day after the threat, Sánchez dug in his heels. “No a la guerra,” he declared. Translated to: “No to war.”
Sánchez evoked the memory of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, which Washington infamously justified with false claims around weapons of mass destruction.
“I don’t think this position is in any way naive. It’s coherent,” the Spanish premier said. “We’re not going to be accomplices in something that’s bad for the world and that’s also contrary to our values and our interests simply because of fear for someone else’s reprisals.”
Washington tried to play down the threat, saying that Spain had agreed to cooperate with the US army. Shortly after, Madrid categorically denied it. Trump then called Spain a “loser” that is “very hostile” to NATO.
In Brussels, the sparks-fly confrontation is being followed with a mix of concern, scepticism and elation. Amid rampant accusations that Europe has become America’s “vassal”, Sánchez’s determination to speak up and stand up to Trump’s forceful policies is earning plaudits. For some, it’s refreshing. For some, it’s inspiring. And for others, it’s irresistible drama.
But is there an ulterior motive?
Sánchez has become deeply divisive in Spain. Years of battling back-to-back crises have turned him into an icon for progressives and a demon for conservatives. The split screen has translated, virtually copy-pasted, to the European scene, where the Spaniard is either adored or reviled.
Though Sánchez still retains his office, his left-wing coalition hasn’t approved a new budget since 2023 and has to scramble for votes across the aisle every time they put forward a legislative initiative. The country is meant to hold general elections no later than August 2027, but the opposition argues the precarious state of things justifies bringing the date forward.
For Sánchez, a head-to-head battle with Trump, a profoundly unpopular figure all across Europe, can pay electoral dividends and divert attention from the corruption scandals besetting his socialist party. The support he has received from Brussels and Paris further animates his crusade.
But it’s a perilous tightrope to walk. Sánchez leads a mid-sized country dependent on exports and vulnerable to external shocks. Trump, by contrast, presides over the world’s largest economy and is willing to utilise every lever at his disposal to exert his power and accomplish his goals, no matter the cost.
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