Four questions about what’s next in Texas
Good evening. Yes, it’s your third time hearing from me in 24 hours — but that’s because we have so much political ground to cover. Tonight we’ll catch up on the fallout from Tuesday’s primaries, and look at the next big fights to come. As you probably know by now, James Talarico, a state representative, won the Texas Democratic primary last night. His opponent, Representative Jasmine Crockett, conceded this morning. And on the Republican side, Senator John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, are heading toward a wild runoff contest in May, with one very big endorsement hanging over the race. But there are still many open questions about the Senate race in Texas and other contests that unfolded last night. Here are a few things I’m wondering about as the dust settles: Does Trump join the Stop-Paxton effort?Cornyn and many national Republicans have argued that nominating Paxton, a scandal-tarnished, far-right candidate, could turn a safe Republican seat into a competitive one that is costly to defend. A Trump endorsement in the runoff could certainly be significant. Can Cornyn’s allies convince the president that backing the senator would be worthwhile? My colleague Theodore Schleifer has more on how those in Cornyn donor world are thinking about all of this, and why — after a brutal primary slog — some are now feeling cautiously optimistic. This afternoon, President Trump indicated that he was getting ready to weigh in. “I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!” he wrote on social media. “We must win in November!!!” Can Talarico win over Black voters who embraced Crockett?Crockett, a national liberal star and a Black Democrat from Dallas, had loyal support from Black voters in Texas, a crucial part of any Democratic coalition. Can Talarico, who is white, make inroads with those voters in a general election? What do such efforts look like? Does Crockett try to help? She said in a statement that “Democrats must rally around our nominees and win,” and that she would “continue working to elect Democrats up and down the ballot.” But in a text exchange with my colleague Reid Epstein, she did not commit to campaigning with Talarico, saying she would not “make plans for other people’s campaigns.” How bad of a night was it for House incumbents?It was tough — but just how tough is an open question. For some, like Representative Dan Crenshaw of Texas — a Republican who had occasionally clashed with the right wing of his party — it was disastrous. But elsewhere, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. This afternoon in North Carolina, Representative Valerie Foushee, a Democrat, led her left-wing challenger, Nida Allam, by a little over a thousand votes. Their race could go to a recount. And in Texas, Representative Al Green, a septuagenarian and an avatar for the party’s battles over age, is headed to a runoff against Representative Christian Menefee, a Democratic rival who is about four decades younger. (They are running against each other because of their state’s redistricting last year.) A Texas House runoff may be a huge headache for Republicans. What do they do?The Paxton-Cornyn runoff is likely to be dramatic — but there’s a House runoff in Texas that might raise even uglier issues for the Republican Party. Representative Tony Gonzales is facing calls from members of his own party to resign, after accusations that he had coerced a staff member into a sexual relationship. The staff member later died by suicide. Gonzales, whose conduct is now the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation, was forced into a runoff last night. Then there is the Republican alternative: Brandon Herrera, a gun rights activist and self-described media personality who has made YouTube videos featuring Nazi-era weaponry, music and imagery, and narrowly lost to Gonzales in 2024. To some national Republicans, both men are unacceptable. Will they hold their nose for Gonzales anyway, or sit out entirely? It’s going to be messy. For more on what happened in Texas, watch my colleague Shane Goldmacher’s analysis:
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When nice guys finish firstThe Democratic primary for Senate in Texas was fought more over style than ideology. Talarico made an audacious bet that in a divided and increasingly violent political era, he could appeal to voters with a call for love instead of rage, my colleague Lisa Lerer writes. We’ll see how that goes in a rough-and-tumble general election, but at least in this primary, it plainly worked. ONE NUMBER $71 millionThat’s at least how much Senator John Cornyn and his allies spent on ads for the Senate Republican primary race in Texas. According to AdImpact, a media tracking firm, it was the most spending in history for a Senate incumbent in a primary.
The Greg Abbott era will go on in TexasGreg Abbott dominated his Republican primary race, as expected, putting him on track for a historic fourth term as Texas governor. He has turned the office into a conservative powerhouse, my colleague Lauren McGaughy writes, using his huge war chest to shape the state’s political landscape. In November, he will face Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative.
ONE LAST THING That’s not Shakespeare, it’s Roy CooperIn the canon of memorable political slogans — “it’s the economy, stupid,” “make America great again” — Roy Cooper, the former governor of North Carolina and the state’s newly anointed Democratic nominee for Senate, has a fresh one for our consideration. That’s the name of a campaign he’s starting to highlight — you guessed it — “how stuff costs too much.” It’s the latest example of a Democrat trying to connect with voters on cost-of-living concerns, using plain-spoken — not professorial — language. Many in the party would like their candidates to sound more, well, normal. Tara Terranova and Hannah Fidelman contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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