Washington, DC

1. GOP hopes for short war
2. War powers vote to fail
3. Conflict spooks markets
4. Vance speaks on Iran
5. MAGA gains in Texas
6. Tillis pushes back
7. Housing bill resistance

PDB: US military begins operations in Ecuador

Iran close to picking new supreme leader … Lutnick to sit for voluntary interview in House Epstein probe … Fed releases its Beige Book

Republicans watch the clock on Iran

President Donald Trump has strong support for his military campaign against Iran from Republicans — for now, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. As Trump predicts a four- or five-week timeline (while noting the US can go far longer), congressional Republicans are making clear they don’t have the appetite for a drawn-out conflict. “As supporters of what the president’s doing, in 60 to 90 days, we start losing our high ground legally,” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., told Semafor. The White House is confident this conflict will be short, and seems keen to avoid Congress having to authorize the war. “We’re not the Bushes,” a White House official said, without explicitly committing to a 60-day timeline for concluding hostilities. “Four to five weeks is when we hope this will conclude … everyone’s optimistic about that.”

Senate set to defeat Kaine’s Iran vote

A Democratic war powers resolution looks headed for defeat today, and there’s still a question of whether any other Republicans will join Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., in backing it. On Tuesday, Senate Republicans even privately discussed frustrations with Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., for launching repeated war powers votes on Iran and Venezuela this Congress to tie up the Senate floor, according to a person briefed on the party meeting. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, said he was satisfied by the briefings this week and will oppose the Iran measure; Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., is inclined to vote no. Some GOP senators are undeclared, like Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Jerry Moran of Kansas. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., may be the only Democratic ‘no’ vote: Centrist Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., called Iran’s regime “terrible,” but will support the resolution on constitutional grounds.

— Burgess Everett

Widening war shakes global markets

The US-Israeli war on Iran reverberated across global markets, causing gas prices to spike — and erecting more hurdles for a White House trying to get a handle on affordability. A widening conflict saw regional US allies report renewed Iranian strikes Wednesday and Israel ramp up its attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, while a submarine attack on an Iranian ship near Sri Lanka left at least 100 missing and dozens wounded. Trump said Tuesday that the Navy could escort oil tankers passing through the critical Strait of ​Hormuz and ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to offer political risk insurance for maritime trade “at a very reasonable price.” The war is also weighing on the US’ traditional alliances; Trump rebuked the UK and Spain over their resistance to the US accessing its bases for strikes and threatened to “cut off” trade with the latter.

All eyes on Vance amid Iran operation

Vice President JD Vance is defending Trump’s operation in Iran after days of silence and a long record of operating as a staunch anti-interventionist — and the comments could follow him should he decide to run for president in 2028. Vance remained quiet in the initial days of US strikes, though Semafor reported he was among those monitoring the operation from the Situation Room. Now, he’s arguing that Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is different from past US conflicts because the president “has clearly defined what he wants to accomplish.” Vance’s role may be to defend and execute the president’s agenda, but the remarks could represent a political vulnerability for the 41-year-old, who rose to prominence within the MAGA universe in part because of his “America First” thinking. His allies argue his stance is not inconsistent with his past views, Real Clear Politics details.

— Shelby Talcott

MAGA gains in first primaries of 2026

Texas Republican primary voters forced GOP Sen. John Cornyn into a runoff on Tuesday, and made Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a sometime Trump critic despised by MAGA commentators like Tucker Carlson, the first incumbent House Republican to lose his seat. On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett, whose slashing, “receipts”-waving rhetorical style made her an early frontrunner; as of early Wednesday Crockett had yet to concede. Talarico will face either Cornyn or Texas’ pro-Trump attorney general, Ken Paxton. “It was a good night for candidates who’d aligned themselves with MAGA — pre-Iran War MAGA, anyway,” Semafor’s David Weigel writes. GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales trailed his challenger, and among Democrats, freshman Rep. Christian Menefee and former Rep. Colin Allred led incumbent Reps. Al Green and Julie Johnson.

Tillis goes big before going home

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., is applying his no-holds-barred Federal Reserve playbook to — well, everything. After eviscerating Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Tuesday for her handling of everything from disaster aid to immigration enforcement to her dog, Tillis pledged to “shut down the [nominations] process until I get answers to my questions.” He left the door open for a future congressional vote on Trump’s war on Iran if there’s a “similar level [of] hostility … three weeks from now.” And he said he was exploring ways to carve out a ban on institutional investors from the Senate’s new housing legislation because it “couldn’t be further away from [the] free market.” “I’m going to try to work on getting it out,” Tillis told Semafor. “We’ll see [how]; just trying to work through the procedural hoops right now.”

Wall St. bristles at Senate housing plan

Wall Street is pushing back on a new Senate proposal that would deliver on Trump’s promise to box institutional investors out of housing. Firms are particularly concerned about a requirement that institutional investors sell any rental homes they build to individuals within seven years, people familiar with the talks told Semafor. The broader effort “is just dumb,” private-equity ally Tillis said. “Let the market do what the market does.” Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott said he doesn’t “have a dog in the fight” beyond making the language “as impactful as necessary to pass” lawmakers’ other housing priorities, noting Trump is “going to sign legislation he supports.” But House Financial Services Chair French Hill signaled the lower chamber may be more sympathetic to industry: “It’s all about the definition,” Hill said. “We really just need to wait and see how that passes muster.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Blindspot: Iran and DHS

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Israel conducted a strike on a location where Iran’s Supreme Council met to determine who should succeed the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, Fox News reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: A federal judge struck down a DHS order that required lawmakers to give the department at least seven days’ notice before visiting immigration detention sites.

Business — and the way companies operate — is transforming in ways both subtle and seismic. The forces moving Wall Street and global enterprise are accelerating, powered by AI breakthroughs, shifting capital flows, and evolving ideas about risk. In every sector, technology, regulation, and government are rewriting the balance of power and possibility.

To help decode the fast-changing forces reshaping business and markets, Semafor is launching Compound Interest from Semafor Business — a podcast featuring in-depth conversations with the leaders building the next chapter of the global economy. Led by Liz Hoffman and Rohan Goswami, Compound Interest will pull back the curtain, and talk directly to the operators, experts, and innovators behind some of the world’s most consequential companies.

On this week’s inaugural episode, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi explains how the company is evolving from ride‑hailing app to an AI‑era operating system for moving people and stuff around cities.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “It’s not a one-and-done,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said of the war powers resolution. “[This vote] will be the first effort of all Congress going on the record about this. But I can assure you it’s not going to be the last.”

Playbook: Americans are evenly split in their support for Iran strikes, a survey by conservative pollsters OnMessage found, with 49% in favor and 48% opposed.

Axios: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called President Trump on Feb. 23 with a huge tip that would set the Iran war in motion: The information that Iran’s supreme leader and top advisers would be meeting on Saturday morning in a single location in Tehran.

WaPo: The Texas Senate primary between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico “was more a clash of Democratic styles than a clash of substance.”

White House

• President Trump is “open to supporting groups in Iran willing to take up arms to dislodge the regime.” — WSJ
• The Justice Department withheld nearly 50,000 documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, including some detailing unverified allegations of sexual misconduct by Trump. — WSJ