Another conflict in the Middle East is raising anxieties over the potential impact on stocks, energy prices, inflation, monetary policy, tourism and – well – our future.

But it generally pays off for investors to sit on their hands during times like these, even when uncertainty is gripping our emotions and stock markets turn volatile.

Mike Silverman, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, a U.S. investment firm, crunched some historical numbers that suggested a similar take.

In a note on Monday, which I referred to briefly in a stock market story this week, he looked at the market reaction after eight major conflicts over the past 36 years, starting with the Gulf War in 1990 through last year’s U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran (not the current attack).

What he found was hardly surprising to anyone who has followed this sort of thing over the years: The S&P 500 typically fell by an average of just 0.37 per cent within a week of the conflict’s starting date. Even more promising, the index was up 0.5 per cent within a month.

More specifically, the S&P 500 was up 0.6 per cent a month after 9/11. It was up 2.4 per cent a month after the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. And it was up 5.5 per cent a month after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The world didn’t end, and markets survived.

Sure, there were outliers to these upbeat examples. The S&P 500 was down 7.9 per cent three months after the Gulf War in 1990.

And yeah, there are always other factors affecting stocks beside military conflict – such as economic activity, equity valuations, inflation and interest rates.

But the takeaway is hard to ignore as the headlines again turn grim and turbulence emerges.

“As with any event like this, the natural tendency is to pause before taking new investment action. Discipline remains important. Decisions should be grounded in long-term objectives rather than short-term headlines,” Mr. Silverman said in a note on Monday.

To put it another way, just do nothing.

But what about the argument for leaning into conflict and scooping up sectors that stand to benefit from whatever turmoil is weighing on markets?

The upside can be tantalizing if you get the timing right.

Gold has been on a years-long tear, and the U.S. attack on Iran gave it a nice boost initially on Monday as investors embraced bullion as safe haven investment.

Similarly, the U.S. dollar gained some renewed interest as a safe asset during an unsafe time, rising to its highest level this year against a basket of global currencies.

Energy stocks also rose, as the price of crude oil jumped above US$77 a barrel early Tuesday over concerns about throttled exports from the Middle East.

“It is our understanding that regional leaders warned Washington about the contagion risks of another confrontation with Iran and indicated that US$100+/bbl oil was a clear and present danger,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note on Sunday.

And even crop nutrient stocks, such as Nutrien Ltd., initially rallied on supply fears.

Oh, and let’s not forget about defence stocks.

Stocks such as Northrop Grumman Corp., Elbit Systems Ltd. and SAAB AB rallied last year as Canada and Europe announced plans to beef up their military budgets. The attack on Iran added another tailwind on Monday, though they declined on Tuesday morning, with other stocks.

The problem with chasing after these stocks, or gold for that matter, is that there is always the risk of buying too late.

With geopolitical tensions already priced in, you have to wonder if there is any more upside left and what will happen to these bets if the conflict ends quickly.

Are you doing anything with your investments given the latest international news? Let me know at dberman@globeandmail.com.