Washington, DC

1. GOP ‘overjoyed’ on Iran
2. MidEast fallout widens
3. Trump officials quizzed
4. Eyes on Strait of Hormuz
5. Tense primary day
6. Trump’s housing win
7. US punishes Rwanda

PDB: Another House Republican retires

Noem testifies in the Senate … Americans urged to leave 15 Middle East countries … Rubio vows efforts to mitigate oil price shocks for consumers

Republicans back Trump on war powers

Republican support for President Donald Trump’s war against Iran is looking solid enough to survive an initial challenge later this week, Semafor’s Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller and Nicholas Wu report. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., will vote against efforts to rein Trump in — especially absent US ground troops — and Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah, told Semafor he wished Trump had asked for a vote beforehand, “but this is a train that’s left the station … It would not be in our best interest at all to stop what’s already started.” At least three GOP senators won’t say how they will vote on the war powers resolution from Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., before today’s briefings, but the mood in the GOP reflects the party’s yearslong campaign against Tehran. “I am overjoyed,” said Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, who spoke to Trump on Sunday.

Trump vows to ramp up Iran operations

The Trump administration is promising to ramp up operations against Iran as the conflict draws in other countries and shakes global markets. Trump on Monday pledged a “big wave” of fresh strikes and suggested the war could go on for “four weeks”; he also refused to rule out sending ground troops “if necessary.” Widening regional fallout saw the State Department close its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Tuesday, following the targeting of US diplomatic and military sites across the Gulf, including a drone attack on the US embassy in Riyadh — which led Trump to vow a response “soon.” The Trump administration argues its offensive will decimate Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and that Israel was going to attack regardless. But as The New York Times details, Trump’s “move toward war” had grown “inexorably” in recent weeks, even as nuclear talks continued.

— Shelby Talcott

Trump officials face Iran questions

Lawmakers in the House and Senate are set to hear today from top Trump administration officials on the ongoing US military strikes in Iran, offering the first opportunity for many of them to grill the administration on its war aims. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine will first brief all senators, at 3:30 pm, and then House lawmakers at 5 pm. Skeptics will come with questions as war powers votes loom in both chambers. But the administration has plenty of defenders; some are already satisfied following Monday’s smaller-group briefing. “At this point, it’s just a matter of them reaffirming that this is probably going to be a pretty short-term deal,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D.

— Nicholas Wu, Eleanor Mueller, and Burgess Everett

All eyes on the Strait of Hormuz

The biggest question in global energy markets is the extent of Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, a senior Revolutionary Guards official told state media that the strait, which carries about 20% of global oil traffic, is “closed” and that Iranian forces “will set ​those ships ablaze” if they try to pass. Time is a critical factor: If Hormuz traffic is disrupted for a week or so, prices should settle down quickly. But a longer closure could trigger the biggest energy bottleneck in decades, with dire consequences for consumers. Iran has a few options for closure, such as confronting tankers with warships, launching missiles or drones, or laying sea mines. Mark Montgomery, a retired US Navy rear admiral, said: “We really need to destroy all Iranian Navy storage, logistics, and command facilities, so there’s a lot of work to be done.”

— Tim McDonnell

Incumbents on edge in NC, Texas primaries

Sitting members of Congress are likely to lose their primaries or be forced into runoffs in Texas and North Carolina today. In North Carolina, allies of Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee have spent more than $2 million in last-minute help against challenger Nida Allam. In Texas, Republican Sen. John Cornyn trails Attorney General Ken Paxton in some polls, despite record-busting spending on the incumbent’s behalf. Democrats James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett are battling for the opportunity to challenge Paxton. Down the ballot, Rep. Dan Crenshaw and Rep. Tony Gonzales have lost high-profile endorsements to challengers who accuse them of betraying Trump, and, in Gonzales’ case, of covering up misbehavior with a now deceased staffer. And Democratic Rep. Al Green faces new Rep. Christian Menefee in a redrawn Houston district, while ex-Rep. Colin Allred vies for his old Dallas seat from Rep. Julie Johnson.

— David Weigel

Senate strikes deal on Trump’s housing idea

Trump is set to notch a win on housing as Congress moves forward with his proposal to shut institutional investors out of housing despite the sustained skepticism of some free-market Republicans. The White House threw its weight Monday behind a new proposal from Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., and the panel’s top Democrat, Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., that combines their housing package with some elements of the House’s — plus language that would fine certain firms that own 350 or more single-family homes if they buy more two years after enactment. Though the firms could build new homes, they’d have to sell them to individuals within seven years. Republicans like Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., who previously raised concerns about distorting the market, said they needed more time to review the legislation before weighing in. “But I’m not going to give them a blank check,” Kennedy said.

— Eleanor Mueller

US, Rwanda tensions flare over sanctions

The Trump administration is stepping up pressure on Rwanda, imposing sanctions on the country’s top military officials — and drawing ire from Kigali, Semafor’s Adrian Elimian reports. The Treasury Department announcement came just days after The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration had tabled sanctions on Rwanda in January following outreach from Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. Monday’s sanctions represent a direct challenge to Rwanda over its long-denied military support for M23, a rebel group that has seized major cities, including Goma and Bukavu in eastern Congo. Trump’s move provoked a stern response from Rwanda’s foreign ministry, which said in a statement that the sanctions “misrepresent the reality and distort the facts of the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.” The ongoing conflict has robbed Trump of an opportunity to take a victory lap on a US-brokered peace deal announced last year.

The Gulf has transformed from a bustling economic hub to the front line of a major war. Iran’s retaliatory strikes have hit bases and airports across the region. The Gulf’s cities have gone quiet, their airports grounded and streets empty as residents take shelter.

The US-Israel assault that killed Iran’s supreme leader has unleashed a new and unpredictable phase of conflict. For the Gulf, the illusion of distance from regional turmoil has been put on hold. Energy markets are bracing for volatility, diplomacy is strained, and the region’s stability is under pressure.

Semafor Gulf is here to help you make sense of it. Four times a week, editor Mohammed Sergie and our team across Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh will connect you with what’s happening on the ground, and how it affects business, energy, and diplomacy — bringing clarity to the most consequential story in the world.

Blindspot: Counterterrorism and SCOTUS

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: FBI Director Kash Patel put US intelligence and counterterrorism officials on “high alert” to monitor potential threats in the wake of US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Supreme Court sided with a group of Christian parents and teachers against a California law that restricts when schools can out students to their families as transgender.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, is set to introduce a legislative package of bills aimed at protecting kids online ahead of a markup scheduled for Thursday, GOP committee aides said.

Playbook: “People are really fixated that [Vice President] Vance has not tweeted,” a House GOP official said of his relative silence on the Iran war. “It’s kind of a huge problem.”

Axios: President Trump on Sunday