Rhode Island can finally exhale: The longest campaign that never was is finally over.

House Speaker Joe Shekarchi announced Tuesday that he won’t run for governor this year, ending a long flirtation that padded his campaign war chest, fed the narrative of his political genius, and kept him firmly at the center of Rhode Island politics for the last two years.

My colleague Ed Fitzpatrick has all the details on Shekarchi’s decision, so you should read that here.

And now the 2026 governor’s race can officially begin. The Democratic primary will be between incumbent Governor Dan McKee and former CVS executive Helena Foulkes (with a few fringe candidates likely sprinkled in). The winner will be a heavy favorite in the general election against whomever emerges from the Republican primary (most likely Aaron Guckian). 

If you’re McKee: You were right all along. While just about everyone in Rhode Island politics thought Shekarchi was leaning toward running, McKee always maintained that Shekarchi wouldn’t challenge him in a Democratic primary.

From a glass half-full perspective, this is the race McKee has been preparing for. He should now be able to lock up the bulk of labor support (which is crucial in a Democratic primary), and he has an opportunity to win a bunch of endorsements from legislators who were waiting for Shekarchi to make a decision. He also has to make sure he wins the state Democratic Party endorsement.

On the other hand, being right about Shekarchi only emboldens McKee’s worst instincts. He’s waking up today with a 50-50 chance at best of winning reelection, and that’s not normal for an incumbent. His irrational confidence masks real flaws in both his administration and his campaign.

If you’re Foulkes: This is the opponent you have wanted to run against for years. Foulkes kicked herself for waiting too long to get active during her 2022 campaign, and she wound up losing a five-way primary to McKee by 3 percentage points. 

This time around, Foulkes has solid campaign operation in place, a massive financial advantage, and a broken bridge that is ever-present in the minds of many Rhode Islanders to use as the symbol for everything that’s wrong with the current administration. The goal now is to win over Shekarchi loyalists in the General Assembly (and maybe Shekarchi himself) and work hard to convince the Democratic Party to issue no endorsement before the primary.

In terms of potential pitfalls, there’s always the possibility that the Foulkes campaign will join the long list of people who have underestimated McKee throughout his political career. She wakes up today in the driver’s seat in this race, but that doesn't guarantee a victory.

The Shekarchi factor: He might not be running for governor, but the speaker is still the most powerful politician in the state. He has significant influence over the Democratic Party endorsement and has the ability to make or break McKee’s “affordability agenda” in the state budget. There’s a reason that both McKee and Foulkes showered him with praise on Tuesday.

Then again, it has never been Shekarchi’s style to put his thumb on the scale in other people’s political races. He enjoys being the person that everyone asks for advice, and it’s better for his own political future (whenever a US Senate seat comes open) to maintain good relationships with everyone.