![]() We're offering a 2-week trial of WrapPRO for $1. If you’ve been wanting to check out our full coverage, now’s the time. Greetings!One the biggest stories to keep an eye for in 2026 is the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow you to essentially bet on virtually any event (one Polymarket trader, for example, took home more than $400,000 for correctly wagering on Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro's ouster). The markets have been around for a while, but are taking center stage this year thanks to big media partnerships with the likes of CNBC, CNN and Dow Jones, the owner of The Wall Street Journal. The rapid succession of partnerships, which have come over the last month, underscores how quickly prediction markets have wormed their way into society. Their prime placement in news programs also give the wagers an added element of legitimacy. But with critics warning of the unanticipated dangers of near-unbridled wagering, how long before people start betting on future tragedies? Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) warned this week “about a dystopian world we are entering — where every moment, event and crisis just become commodities.” As Michael Calderone explores in his analysis, news organizations are using these bets as an indicator of public sentiment, tapping into the "wisdoms from the crowds." They're being used to inform reporting and are regularly cited on TV news programs. But it's not a stretch to imagine the sentiment reflected in these bets start to warp our perception of reality, or actually influence the outcome in a "wag the dog" situation. When White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt abruptly ended a briefing last week just shy of the 65-minute mark, it sparked an outcry among traders given the 98% odds she’d go over. With just a 2% chance, someone betting she’d stop stood to make 50X their bet. (For example, a $1,000 bet nets $50,000.) Even if it was a coincidence, the fact that there was debate over whether her actions were dictated by a wager is troubling enough. And with that grim note, I hope you all have a wonderful long weekend. The WrapPRO Daily newsletter will be back on Tuesday. Roger Cheng
There's a FOMO aspect to predictive markets that's akin to what's going on with artificial intelligence...
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