I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to hear some nominations.

In just six days, Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman will take the stage at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater to announce the 2026 Academy Award nominees. At the exact same time, I will be in the air on my way to Sundance Film Festival, hopefully getting a first look at movies we’ll get to talk about this time next year.

A few of the big awards shows have already come and gone. Last weekend, we got to see the latest chapter of the new Golden Globes. A ceremony that used to be loose, unpredictable and kind of ridiculous has fully transitioned into something more respectable — but also pretty boring, awkward and apolitical.

As much as I love many of this year's nominees and winners, I do think this production still needs to find its footing. My editor Steve Pond had some great analysis on that, and I encourage you to check it out.

Predicting the Oscars can be a fool’s errand (more on that later), especially when ceremonies without much voter crossover (Critics Choice, Golden Globes) drive the early conversation. Still, history tells us that what we saw at those shows (as well as nominations for the Actor Awards, PGAs, DGAs and more) will likely pop up again next Thursday.

That’s what TheWrap’s Awards Tracker is built on. The Tracker combs through decades of data to tell us who has gotten all the right nominations and wins so far this season to show up again on Oscar morning. These rankings aren't based on what some people on Polymarket are thinking (seriously, Globes, what are we doing here?) — just history. 

When I compared my own list of predictions (interpreting some X factors that can’t be found in data), they lined up almost exactly with the Awards Tracker’s leaderboard. The numbers don’t lie.

So read on to find out what I think will be this year’s above-the-line Oscar nominees — and feel free to yell at me if you think I’m dead wrong.

And your (predicted) nominees are...

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

“Bugonia” (Will Tracy)
“Frankenstein” (Guillermo del Toro)
“Hamnet” (Maggie O'Farrell, Chloé Zhao)
“One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson)
“Train Dreams” (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar)

Potential surprise: “No Other Choice” (Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar)

It can be difficult to predict the screenplay categories ahead of the Academy Awards, as we often have few data points to go off of. Thus far, screenplays have only been recognized at the Golden Globes (where they make no distinction between adapted and original) and Critics Choice.

The Awards Tracker lists the six Critics Choice nominees at the top with Globes winner “One Battle After Another” in first, Globes nominee “Hamnet” in second and the other four tying for third.

Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee and Don McKellar wrote one of my favorite screenplays of the year for “No Other Choice,” I believe their work will go unrecognized in favor of films that will likely be Best Picture nominees.

Best Screenplay (Original)

“It Was Just an Accident” (Jafar Panahi)
“Marty Supreme” (Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie)
“Sentimental Value” (Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt)
“Sinners” (Ryan Coogler)
“Sorry, Baby” (Eva Victor)

Potential surprises: “The Secret Agent” (Kleber Mendonça Filho), “Weapons” (Zach Cregger)

Like with the adapted screenplays, I only have two data points to work with here (though, a few more original screenplays got nominated at the Golden Globes). I fully believe the Awards Tracker’s top four of “Sinners,” “Sentimental Value,” “Marty Supreme” and “It Was Just an Accident” will get nominated.

From there, I’m going to give “Sorry, Baby” the tiebreaking vote. I’ve already felt that this film would be a lone screenplay nominee (we often get one of those at the Oscars), and Julia Roberts’ very public shoutout after the Golden Globes makes me think Victor’s exceptional work will be even harder to ignore.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”)
Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”)
Paul Mescal (“Hamnet”)
Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”)
Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”)

Potential surprises: Miles Caton (“Sinners”), Adam Sandler (“Jay Kelly”)

The Awards Tracker has this one right on the money. For a long while, I felt like del Toro, Mescal, Penn and Skarsgård were locks and debated who would take the fifth slot. When Elordi won Best Supporting Actor at Critics Choice (a prize that belongs to the last nine Oscar winners), he put that conversation to rest.
 

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana Grande (“Wicked: For Good”)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”)
Amy Madigan (“Weapons”)
Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”)
Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”)

Potential surprises: Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”)

I’ve struggled to decide whether the “Sentimental Value” women will come as a pair on nomination morning. They’ve both gotten the exact same nominations so far — recognized at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, snubbed when the Actor Awards ignored everything international.

But the “Sinners” wave is strong, and I believe Wunmi Mosaku’s excellent performance will be part of what I’m predicting to be a record-breaking (or, at least, record-tying) nomination haul. Since the Awards Tracker ranks Lilleaas and Fanning the same, I have to use my own judgment as a tiebreaker: Lilleaas in, Fanning out.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”)
Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”)
Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”)
Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”)

Potential surprise: Joel Edgerton (“Train Dreams”)

Best Actor feels like the most cut-and-dried category at this year’s ceremony — at least, for nominations. The Awards Tracker is right on the money for predicting these five men in the final lineup.

All five were nominated at the Actor Awards, the Golden Globes and Critics Choice except for Moura, who only missed out with SAG. Still, winning Best Actor at both Cannes Film Festival and the Golden Globes makes quite the statement. I would be shocked if he missed the nomination.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)
Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”)
Chase Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”)
Emma Stone (“Bugonia”)
Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”)

Potential surprise: Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”)

At this point, Buckley, Byrne, Infiniti and Stone all feel like locks for Best Actress. I anticipate that Reinsve (who missed out on this category a few years ago in her last Trier/Vogt collab, “The Worst Person in the World”) gets in as well.

While the Awards Tracker could easily be correct in giving Hudsona slight edge, I think Reinsve’s omission from the Actor Awards speaks more to SAG’s preferences than it does to the overall Oscar race. The Actor Awards nominated zero international performances, whereas I predict the Academy Awards will recognize at least four.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)
Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”)
Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”)
Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”)

Potential surprises: Guillermo del Toro (“Frankenstein”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”)

Best Director is, without a doubt, the hardest above-the-line category to predict this year. The Awards Tracker lists the five DGA nominees (Anderson, Coogler, Zhao, del Toro, Safdie) at the top, and that makes sense. But the Academy and the DGA most often share four nominees — they haven’t shared all five since the 2010 Oscars.

I am most comfortable in saying that Anderson, Coogler and Zhao are safe. But will del Toro or Safdie be the one to miss? And does Trier or Panahi take their slot? It’s hard to say, so all I can do is go with my gut.
 

Best Picture