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| The Daily Pitch |
| PE, VC and M&A |
| Your edge on global private capital markets |
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| Good morning. Today's newsletter looks at the mixed results run up by VC-backed IPOs in 2025 and explores what the Janus Henderson take-private deal says about asset managers' hurdles. Also, the 10 most active VC investors betting on AI agents. |
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| 2025's mixed bag for newly public VC-backed companies |
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| Figma CEO Dylan Field, at left (Kimberly White/Getty Images) |
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By Rosie Bradbury, Sr. VC Reporter
Several of the hottest venture-backed companies that went public in 2025—Circle, Figma, Klarna, Netskope and Navan—are all flat or down from their debut opening price, despite the tech-heavy Nasdaq ending the year on a high.
After a drought in public listings, investors were hoping that 2025 would finally bring back a stream of IPOs to provide much-needed liquidity.
While both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up by more than 10% over the last six months, a notable cohort of these newly public companies haven't held their stock prices.
Part of their muted performance is common for IPOs: Initial high excitement over a company's listing and first day of trading can subsequently fade due to macroeconomic events or investor disappointment in the company's performance.
Poor post-IPO performance can also dampen the enthusiasm of peer companies gearing up to go public. "If you have a lot of volatility and unpredictability, it makes that pricing go a little haywire," said Alexa Belonick, a corporate and securities lawyer at Gunderson Dettmer.
To be sure, some companies, including data center giant CoreWeave and virtual healthtech Hinge Health, have done well since hitting the public markets. They are up 64% and 28% year-to-date, respectively.
After a slow few years of tech exits, many VCs are (again) banking on 2026 to finally be a blockbuster year for IPOs.
There are some potentially major liquidity events on the horizon: Anthropic and SpaceX, which have some of the highest private valuations, are both reportedly exploring going public in 2026.
Whether high-flying startups pull the trigger and enable GPs to send long-overdue liquidity back to LPs will depend in large part on factors out of founders' control: inflation rates, probability of recession and investor uncertainty.
Belonick is still seeing tech companies wanting to engage in listing discussions for 2026 and beyond, apparently undeterred by the IPO performance of some of the recent cohort.
But some VCs are still wary. "You basically get one chance at [an IPO], and no one wants to take a risk and then become a battered stock that people aren't excited about," said Rob Biederman, managing partner at Asymmetric Capital Partners, adding: "We're telling founders, 'Hold off as long as you can.'" |
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• AI agents are finding footholds everywhere as investors fork over capital. Here are the 10 most active VC investors betting on AI agents. See the list
• As capital expenditures at tech companies balloon, more investors are considering the possibility that revenue generated from AI funding may not live up to the hype. In case you missed it, we put together five charts to help decipher the 'AI bubble' debate. |
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| Janus Henderson deal highlights asset managers' fee struggles |
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Trian Fund co-founder Nelson Peltz, from left, with Elon Musk in Los Angeles in 2024.
(Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/Getty Images) |
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By Jessica Hamlin, Sr. Funds Columnist
This week's $7.4 billion take-private of Janus Henderson highlights the challenge that many traditional asset managers face in generating fee-related revenues and the steps they are taking to address the issue.
Under the terms of the deal, Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst will buy the London-based business, which ended September with $484 billion in assets under management, off the New York Stock Exchange in an all-cash transaction expected to close in mid-2026.
The buyers also include several strategic investors, such as the Qatar Investment Authority, MassMutual and Hong Kong-based property developer Sun Hung Kai & Co.
Janus Henderson's current management team, including CEO Ali Dibadj, will remain in place.
The broad move away from active fund management has hurt those who were late to embrace passive equity investing strategies, especially small and midsized firms.
In 2019 alone, Janus Henderson was hit by $27.4 billion of investor outflows and an 11% drop in its share price as customers, turned off by high fees and inconsistent performance, moved out of actively managed equity funds. These redemptions triggered the entrance of activist investor Trian, which in October 2020 took a 9.9% stake in Janus Henderson and held a 20.6% stake in the lead up to the acquisition.
While Janus has stemmed overall outflows in what Trian co-founder Nelson Peltz, in an October letter to shareholders, described as a "highly successful operational turnaround," the company's public equities business continues to shrink.
It will be easier for the firm to restructure its business away from the glare of public markets, said a person familiar with Janus Henderson's thinking. Janus did not wish to comment. |
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Smart reads that caught our eye.
• The use of buy now, pay later services might tell the story of US consumer confidence. While some metrics show worsening consumer attitudes, others show that spending is up this year compared with 2024's holiday season. The difference could be enabled by fintech startups like Klarna. [Bloomberg]
• Manmade underground salt caverns could become a pivotal factor in the data center boom. These natural gas reservoirs might not be built fast enough to meet the spiking demand for constructing AI infrastructure in the US. [Fortune]
• Heavy regulations aren't stopping these startup founders. From eliminating skin biopsies to composting human remains, they see navigating regulatory clearance as just a hurdle in industries ripe for disruption. [TechCrunch] |
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