Washington, DC

As we get ready to turn the page on 2025, we asked five newsmakers about their predictions for the new year.

1. Trump’s prediction
2. Arrington on another megabill
3. Daines on US-China ties
4. Bannon eyes AI fight
5. Fetterman’s forecast

We’re taking a break for the holidays. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Jan. 2, with a special edition on what to watch for in 2026. Thanks for your loyal readership, and happy holidays.

Trump seeks to manifest a booming economy

President Donald Trump’s biggest prediction for 2026? “The economy is going to boom,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Semafor. That forecast underscores the president’s awareness that his party’s performance in the midterms will rest on how voters who’ve felt strained by the rising cost of living feel about their finances. Trump ended 2025 by looking to balance his foreign policy-heavy year with domestic travel to talk about the economy, after lackluster off-year election results in November. He also delivered an address to the nation focused largely on the economy, touting his administration’s accomplishments (and criticizing Joe Biden). And Trump’s advisers are already starting to look towards the 2026 tax refund season, with its extra benefits for many Americans, as a critical moment for voters to start seeing the benefits of his policies.

— Shelby Talcott

House Budget chair predicts second GOP megabill

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington told Semafor that Republicans will enact another party-line package — this one touching on health care — in 2026. “My prediction is [Democrats] will not work with us on any consensus health care reform bill, so therefore Republicans will turn their attention back to reconciliation and use [that] as the vehicle to advance the health care reforms that will make it affordable … for 100% of the American people,” said the Texas Republican, whose committee has jurisdiction over the process. Republicans used reconciliation to bypass the Senate filibuster and enact their 2025 tax-and-spending law without Democratic votes. But doing that requires all provisions to be budget-related, which would likely disqualify health care-related proposals advanced by Republicans, like cost-sharing reductions. Arrington’s bonus prediction: “Texas Tech will win the national championship,” he said.

— Eleanor Mueller

Daines sees further thaw in US-China relations

Next year promises to be a defining moment for the US-China relationship. Trump is planning a visit to China as he looks to ease tensions between the world’s two biggest economies and potentially usher in a broader trade agreement. “I am cautiously optimistic that we’ll be in a better place at the end of next year,” said Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., who plans to lead a bipartisan delegation to China in March. These meetings are necessary to “keep the constructive dialogue occurring,” he added. There are still areas of disagreement between the two world powers, like US military support for Taiwan, which could complicate Trump’s overtures to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., accused Trump of sending “very mixed” messages on China. “I would hope that we might be more consistent … but I’m not optimistic,” she said.

— Morgan Chalfant

Bannon predicts MAGA fight over AI

All eyes are on the left and artificial intelligence for 2026, at least from the perspective of Trump confidant and former adviser Steve Bannon. He told Semafor he’s predicting an increase in left-wing violence. And Bannon simultaneously warned that MAGA is about to fight “its most important battle — against the AI Broligarchs who are using money to consolidate political power.” It’s a notable prediction for Bannon, who has broken with the president on the issue of AI despite being a longtime Trump ally. Trump earlier this month issued an executive order aiming to create a “national framework” for AI while limiting states’ power to regulate the technology; that order was a top priority for the industry. Bannon argued at the time that the executive order was “entirely unenforceable” and that “tech bros” are turning Trump’s “MAGA base away from him.”

— Shelby Talcott

Fetterman says Dems will flip House — but not Senate

The 2026 midterms will look a lot like 2018’s elections, says Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa. Fetterman won his first statewide office during the blue wave of 2018 to become lieutenant governor. A repeat result eight years later would be both good and bad news for Democrats looking to take control of Congress: It would mean turning the House blue but falling short in the Senate. Because of a slightly more favorable Senate map, the Pennsylvanian predicted his party would likely net some seats in the Senate (the GOP picked up seats in 2018 due to Trump’s strength in red states). “The second Trump was elected, I knew we would win the House back. I mean, that’s not an expert’s take, that’s history,” Fetterman told Semafor. “We’ll pick up seats, I think, in the Senate.” The GOP currently has a 53-seat majority.

— Burgess Everett