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Good afternoon,
Investors can get yields of close to 4% annually from short-term government bond ETFs. Relatively higher yields on short-term debt are a welcome reprieve from prior years of very low yields.
So how do dividend growth stocks stack up versus short-term debt funds?
In regards to low-risk current income, ETFs like BIL win hands down.
Note: BIL had a 3.8% yield in mid-November 2025 when this analysis was done.
But taking a longer term view shows a very different picture...
Your principal isn’t going to meaningfully increase if interest payments aren’t reinvested with a bond ETF like BIL. So, without reinvestment, you get a ~4.0% yield (rounding up) on your income.
Compare that to a high quality dividend growth stock portfolio held for the long run.
Last month’s Top 10 buy-and-hold-forever dividend growth stocks in the Sure Passive Income Newsletter (now the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter) had an average dividend yield of 2.1% and average expected dividend-per-share growth rate of 8.9%.
Note: Data from the 11/14/25 Sure Analysis spreadsheet.
A comparison of the income generated annually and principal growth of $10,000 invested in these two different choices is below.
The below comparison assumes that:
- Dividends increase at our expected dividend-per-share growth rate of 8.9%
- Share price increases at our expected earnings-per-share growth rate of 8.8%
Note: Our average expected earnings-per-share growth rate for the November 2025 Sure Passive Income Newsletter Top 10 is 8.8%, which is a shade below our expected dividend growth rate. This means we expect moderate payout ratio expansion. These rates are typically close, but aren't always equal.
Note: In the hypothetical example above, compounding occurs at the start of each year. So at the end of year 1, no growth has occurred. At the end of year 2, the dividend growth portfolio's income and principal have grown by 8.9% and 8.8%, respectively.
While the images above aren’t a perfect depiction of reality – returns are never this smooth for a dividend growth portfolio – it does convey the power of compounding.
One investment choice pays you $380 on your $10,000 annually. The other starts off with smaller payments, but eclipses the initial higher yields over time. And the difference in principal over time is staggering.
Note: These examples assume dividends/interest is used instead of reinvested. Compounding would be even more powerful if dividends were reinvested.
Significant wealth is created through the compounding of the dividend portfolio over time, which is not the case with the static short-term government bond portfolio.
And that's where the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter (formerly the Sure Passive Income Newsletter) shows its value.
About The Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter The Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter analyzes our Top 10 buy and hold forever dividend growth stocks for rising passive income.
- It is our most growth-focused dividend growth newsletter.
- Its recommendations are meant to be purchased once and held for the long run.
- It publishes on the 3rd Sunday of every month.
- The first edition went live in October 2020; we've published every month since.
- More than 3,700 investors currently receive the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter every month.
The Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter perfect for investors looking to add buy-and-hold forever dividend growth stocks to their portfolio.
The Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter has everything you need to build your high quality dividend growth stock portfolio for buy-and-hold rising passive income, including:
- Our Top 10 buys every month
- Actionable sell recommendations, as needed
- A to-the-point portfolio building guide
- And much more...
Why Now Is The Best Time To Start Your Free Trial Now is the perfect time to start your free Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter trial because:
- By joining now, you will instantly receive the November 2025 edition.
- You will also get the new December 2025 edition this Sunday morning, while still in your free 7-day trial period.
- Our special 2025 End Of Year Deep Discount Event is currently in effect, reducing your price from $199/year, to just $81/year.
The key points of this special limited time deep discount offer for the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter are below:
- Special Deeply Discounted Price
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- No Risk Free Trial
Our 7-day free trial means you get to try the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter for free. And our 60-day full refund period means you can get a full refund within 60 days on your first payment(s) if this newsletter isn't the right fit for you.
- Sure Dividend Growth Enrollment Ends Soon
We will close enrollment for the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter shortly after this promotion ends (we will close enrollment the morning of 12/23/25).
- Expires In 5 Days With Absolutely No Exceptions
This deep discount offer expires at 11:59 PM CST on 12/22/25, with absolutely no exceptions.
There's no risk in trying the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter because of the 7 day free trial and 60 day full refund period...
But there is serious upside potential to investing in high quality buy and hold forever dividend growth stocks.
"In my investment tracking spreadsheet, these Passive Income stocks are labeled the Untouchables and I am prepared to hold them forever. May this newsletter go on in perpetuity!" – Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter member (Formerly the Sure Passive Income Newsletter)
Reminders: We will publish the December 2025 edition of the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter this Sunday (12/21/25), and you will instantly receive the current edition when you start your free trial below. Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter enrollment closes just after this offer ends, which is in just 5 days, on 12/22/25 at 11:59 PM CST.
Notes: The Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter, only $199/year $81/year. Enter coupon code EY25SG if it doesn't apply automatically as it should.
Or, lock in your deep discount on our absolute best service, the Sure Analysis Research Database.
The Sure Analysis Research Database
Sure Analysis is where our ~15 person analyst team covers 900+ income securities every quarter over the same metrics that matter. Sure Analysis data powers our other premium services
The Sure Analysis Research Database includes everything else we do, including all 3 of our premium newsletters, a daily updated spreadsheet, 3-page PDF quarterly updates on every security we cover, and more.
Click Here To Start Your 7-day Free Trial Now Normally $999/year | Now just $324/year Your price will never increase after joining Sure Analysis will never be this inexpensive again
Offer ends 11:59 PM CST on 12/31/25
Note: Current members will get a prorated refund for unused time on their other plan(s) shortly after their 7-day free trial of Sure Analysis charges.
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Email me directly at ben@suredividend.com with any questions.
To your compounding dividend income,
Ben Reynolds Founder, Sure Dividend
P.S. We will publish the new December 2025 edition of the Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter this Sunday! Click here to start your 7-day free trial with the deep discount applied.
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