ISDA dailyLead
IMF presses China on reforms, raises growth forecast | Fed signals set tone for 2026 markets | Global bond yields surge as rate cut hopes fade
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December 10, 2025
 
 
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BoE split deepens before rate call
Bank of England officials have signaled widening divisions ahead of next week's policy meeting, with deputy governor Clare Lombardelli warning of "upside risks" to inflation and urging caution on further cuts despite Budget measures expected to reduce price pressures. Several Monetary Policy Committee members, including Catherine Mann, echoed concerns about lingering inflation, while others such as Dave Ramsden argued the bank can proceed with easing as disinflation strengthens. Governor Andrew Bailey is seen as the swing vote as markets price in a quarter-point cut.
Full Story: The Guardian (London) (12/9), City A.M. (London) (12/9), Financial Times (12/10)
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IMF presses China on reforms, raises growth forecast
The International Monetary Fund urged China to speed structural reforms and shift toward consumption-led growth, warning that reliance on debt-fueled investment and exports is increasingly untenable amid global trade tensions. The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast to 5% and 2026 to 4.5%, but said property-sector weakness, local government debt, and subdued domestic demand continue to challenge policymakers.
Full Story: Reuters (12/10), South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) (12/10)
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Industry News and Trends
 
Fed signals set tone for 2026 markets
The US Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision is poised to shape investor positioning for 2026, with rate expectations likely to drive equity sentiment well before the calendar turns. Markets are also watching the possible appointment of Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, as the next Fed chair, as President Donald Trump is scheduled to conduct final candidate interviews.
Full Story: CNBC (12/10), Reuters (12/10), Barron's (12/10)
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Global bond yields surge as rate cut hopes fade
Global bond yields have hit their highest levels since 2009 as traders scale back expectations for further easing, with markets now pricing virtually no additional cuts from the European Central Bank and renewed tightening in Japan and Australia. Long-dated US Treasury yields also climbed ahead of the US Federal Reserve's expected cut, reflecting concerns over inflation persistence, fiscal deficits, and uncertainty surrounding the next Fed chair.
Full Story: Bloomberg (12/10), Reuters (12/10)
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Hassett signals independence on Fed rate cuts
US Federal Reserve chair contender Kevin Hassett said he would not bow to political pressure on interest rate decisions, even as he echoed US President Trump's view that there is "plenty of room" for cuts in the months ahead. Speaking at an event, Hassett said he would rely on data and his own judgment if appointed, stressing that rates couldn't be lowered if inflation were to reaccelerate.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (12/9), Quartz (12/9)
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Regulatory Roundup
 
Trump nears final Fed chair pick ahead of interviews
US President Donald Trump plans to conduct final interviews this week with candidates for US Federal Reserve chair, including former governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, after abruptly canceling sessions last week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has narrowed the field to five contenders, signaling the job isn't locked up as Trump weighs a successor to Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to deliver another rate cut Wednesday.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (12/9), Financial Times (12/9)
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CFTC pilot signals shift toward on-chain collateral
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's new digital-asset collateral pilot could mark a structural turning point, with industry participants calling it the first practical bridge between 24/7 crypto markets and derivatives infrastructure. Market experts say withdrawing outdated restrictions and allowing Bitcoin, Ether and USDC as margin, under tight reporting and supervision, pulls key activity back onshore and lays groundwork for real-time, tokenized collateral flows that could reshape risk management.
Full Story: Markets Media (12/9)
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CCPs warn ESMA margin rules could curb innovation
Clearinghouses say the European Securities and Markets Authority's final technical standards under Emir 3.0 remain highly prescriptive and could slow model updates and new product launches, despite tweaks intended to ease the burden. Although ESMA raised the threshold for "significant" model changes to a 20% impact on prefunded resources and exempted shifts toward more conservative margining, CCPs argue the regime still creates heavy administrative work and contrasts with the US' more flexible self-certification approach.
Full Story: Risk (subscription required) (12/10)
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