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US bond investors are positioning for a mild Federal Reserve easing cycle by reducing long-duration exposure and favoring intermediate Treasurys, reflecting expectations of fewer rate cuts in 2026 and a higher neutral rate near 3%. With inflation still above target and policy uncertainty elevated, banks and asset managers say the belly of the curve offers better risk-adjusted returns than traditional long-bond strategies.
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Traders are pricing in the biggest post-Federal Reserve move in months, with options implying roughly a 1% swing in either direction after an expected quarter-point rate cut. While a 97% probability of easing is already baked in, wide divergence in policymakers' projections and dissents is set to drive volatility even as Fed decisions exert less influence on equity trading.
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Private credit is increasingly mirroring the public bond market as rapid growth pushes the asset class into areas once dominated by high-yield bonds and leveraged loans. Assets under management are projected to reach $5 trillion by 2029, and lenders now offer private versions of nearly every major fixed-income segment. Experts say the convergence is driven by banks pulling back, borrowers seeking bespoke financing, and investors chasing yield. They warn that rising competition could pressure underwriting standards, increasing risks around leverage, liquidity, and potential market stress.
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US equities edged lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.4% and the S&P 500 off 0.3%, as investors remained cautious ahead of a widely expected quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Chipmakers helped the Nasdaq hold roughly flat, and Treasury yields rose following stronger Chinese export data and higher US tariff revenues.
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The Supreme Court's conservative majority signaled it is likely to back President Donald Trump's removal of Federal Trade Commission member Rebecca Slaughter, positioning the court to weaken or overturn Humphrey's Executor, the 1935 precedent limiting presidential authority over independent agencies. Justices pressed on the implications for bodies such as the Federal Reserve, though several suggested the ruling could be narrowly tailored, while the liberal wing warned that dismantling the precedent could ripple across the administrative state.
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Top executives from Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will reportedly meet senators Thursday to discuss pending crypto market-structure legislation, focusing on stablecoin interest payments, competitive concerns and illicit-finance safeguards. Bipartisan negotiators are nearing agreement on regulatory boundaries for crypto assets, though final Senate passage is not expected until next year, sources say.
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Some universities are seeking opportunities in New York City real estate as they seek to locate themselves in a resilient job market and provide experiential learning opportunities for students. "Partnering, being embedded with industry, and building that relationship is super important," said James Kellerhouse, who will be a vice chancellor at an upcoming Manhattan campus for Vanderbilt University.
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