As Americans fill their carts with Thanksgiving staples and Black Friday deals this week, Democrats believe it could be an inflection point in their effort to take on President Donald Trump, underscoring for voters that Trump has not fulfilled a central campaign pledge: reining in prices.
The economic data heading into Thanksgiving and the kickoff of the Christmas shopping season is mixed. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the cost of an average Thanksgiving feast for 10 people will total approximately 5% less than last year — the third year-over-year drop in a row. The change is driven, in part, by lower turkey prices. Republicans have pointed to this data point to push back on claims Trump is not following through on his campaign promises.
However, overall prices for American consumers continue to rise — despite Trump’s assertions to the contrary. The consumer price index was up 3% in September over the year prior.
Trump and Republicans find themselves in a classic bind on economic messaging. If he touts his successes too much, he risks looking out of touch to the struggles of voters — and he could lead some Americans to wonder why they’re not seeing the benefits that Trump is touting. If he’s more muted in his messaging, perceptions of the economy might be worse.
Of course, there’s little risk that Trump would ever be too muted in claiming victory on inflation, affordability, the job market and stock gains. But recent polls suggest many Americans are underwhelmed by the economy — and are blaming Trump and his sweeping tariffs for making things worse.
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