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While some European indices hit new records this week following the announcement of the end of the longest shutdown in history, Wall Street slowed down. The prolonged absence of statistics has heightened uncertainty about the health of the US economy. At the same time, technology stocks remain highly valued and the Fed may postpone its next rate cut, prioritizing price stability over the fragility of the labour market. |
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| This week's gainers and losers |
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Up:
Eli Lilly +10.92%: Stock is surging to record highs after a sweeping price-cut deal with the Trump administration dramatically expands access to its obesity and diabetes drugs, boosting sales expectations and strengthening its overall market position.
SSE +19.19% : The British electricity producer has unveiled a new strategic plan based on a major investment programme designed to strengthen its networks and support its growth. The company has also raised funds to finance its various projects.
Barrick Mining +11.91%: The North American gold giant is benefiting from high prices for its precious metal despite a decline in production. Dividends have been raised and share buybacks are proceeding apace thanks to a sharp increase in cash flow. The strategy is refocused on North America, while solutions are being sought for the business in Mali.
SanDisk +6.13%: The company's latest results show a strong sales rebound and rising demand that support a more optimistic outlook.
Down:
Coreweave -25.62%: The cloud infrastructure specialist has revised its forecasts downwards following the announcement of a delay at one of its data centre providers.
3i Group -20.73%: Shareholders in the British holding company are concerned about its heavy reliance on its stake in Action. The retailer's like-for-like sales are showing signs of slowing down. The market has also factored in a valuation adjustment as the premium became high. Finally, the environment is challenging for private equity transactions.
Strategy -17.43%: The company, known as the largest holder of Bitcoin, is suffering from the weakness of the cryptocurrency, whose price remains sensitive to fluctuations in technology stocks and the macroeconomic climate.
Technology companies -6.86%: With the prolonged shutdown wreaking havoc on the US economy and clouding the picture on the monetary policy to be adopted, technology stocks such as Oracle, Nvidia and Palantir are facing a growing wave of investor risk aversion. |
| Commodities |
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Energy: Oil prices ended the week around equilibrium, torn between a return to risk aversion penalizing risky assets, fears of oversupply in oil markets and intensifying geopolitical tensions with new Ukrainian attacks targeting a major Russian export hub. In terms of fundamentals, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its forecasts and still expects the oil market to be well supplied for the next few years, with a significant increase in global oil supply. The IEA expects modest demand growth, suggesting a significant surplus by 2026. The OPEC shares this view, as the cartel also expects a potential supply surplus for 2026, revising its previous forecasts towards an oversupply. On the geopolitical front, a drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk in Russia temporarily reduced oil shipments, causing concern in the market about future disruptions. Imminent US sanctions against Russian oil companies also add a layer of complexity to the dynamics of Russian exports. In terms of prices, Brent is trading at around $66.80, compared to $62.60 for WTI.
Metals: Copper continues to perform strongly on the London Metal Exchange, temporarily reaching $11,000 per metric tonne, thanks to a weaker dollar and renewed optimism following the end of the US government shutdown. However, copper underwent a slight correction at the end of the week due to disappointing economic data from China, which has reignited fears about demand. Gold posted a weekly gain of around 1%, a strong performance given recent statements by Fed officials about an upcoming rate cut in December. An ounce of gold is trading at around USD 4,050.
Agricultural commodities: Soybeans, corn and wheat in the United States ended the week sharply higher. Soybeans could rebound thanks to an expected increase in Chinese purchases. Corn gained ground in Chicago, rising to 441 cents per bushel, as did wheat at 540 cents (December 2025 contract). As for coffee, Arabica prices fell this week following the US decision to eliminate certain tariffs on coffee with four Latin American countries. |
| Macroeconomics |
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Macro: Major indices clearly stalled this week, even though the government shutdown has just ended. Investors are preferring to sell the news as uncertainty mounts over the US Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions and some quarterly earnings reports have been somewhat disappointing despite a generally strong performance overall. We will have to wait a little longer for official statistics to get a better sense of the state of the world's largest economy. It should be noted that the 10-year US Treasury yield tested a resistance zone around 4.16%, while US small caps (IWM) are currently testing key support around $236. A close below this level would mark the beginning of a deeper consolidation, even though seasonality would otherwise favor a rise in the equity market.
Crypto: The gloomy economic environment and investor caution continue to weigh heavily on the cryptocurrency market. This decline is particularly evident in bitcoin (BTC)-backed ETFs, which have seen outflows of more than $2.5 billion in just 21 days. The momentum remains negative, in line with that observed last week. Its evolution will depend in part on the financial results of Nvidia, whose performance could act as a catalyst, reassuring the markets or not. Beyond the flow movements, the crypto ecosystem is keeping a close eye on two major upcoming events. On the one hand, the announced IPO of Grayscale, one of the largest digital asset managers, is raising many expectations. On the other hand, investors are hoping for a clear position from the SEC on the regulation of tokens. A recent speech by Paul Atkins, chairman of the US regulatory authority, suggests that clarification on the definition of financial securities is forthcoming, a potential step towards a more stable framework for the industry. |
With the government shutdown now over, U.S. economic data releases can finally start up again but the timeline is still murky, and we shouldn't expect a sudden wave of reports. It will take time for federal statistical agencies, like the rest of the government, to get fully back to speed. The White House has suggested that the September jobs report could be published as early as next week. On the corporate side, the picture is clearer: Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday will command most of the market's attention, especially as worries grow around stretched valuations. Investors will also be focused on results from major retailers Walmart, Home Depot, and Target which remain key indicators of U.S. consumer strength. Have a great weekend, everyone. |
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Things to read this week
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Make America affordable again: Donald Trump's challenge for 2026
According to the New York Times, the Trump administration is preparing to implement broad exemptions to certain tariffs in order to reduce high food prices. In... Read more
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Britain's Fiscal Two-Step
Markets wobble as Rachel Reeves retreats from an income-tax rise-then steady when the reason emerges. Read more
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The shutdown is dead. Long live the shutdown!
After more than 40 days, the longest shutdown in history is expected to end this week. The government shutdown did not disrupt Wall Street, which nevertheless... Read more
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