Washington, DC

1. Sheehy’s NASA hardball
2. 50-year mortgages under fire
3. Shutdown’s shadow
4. Trump’s trade frameworks
5. China squeezes Global South
6. Trump prosecutor challenged

PDB: Chinese hackers used Anthropic to automate attacks

Trump heads to Palm Beach … Xi Jinping to skip G20 … Nasdaq futures ⬇️ 0.8%

Inside Tim Sheehy’s NASA rescue mission

Just how did Jared Isaacman have his NASA nomination withdrawn and then resurrected in the space of less than six months? It had plenty to do with Montana Republican Sen. Tim Sheehy, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. The freshman senator played hardball with the White House, putting a hold on Sergio Gor’s nomination to be US ambassador to India — a full-circle move, since Gor is blamed for killing Isaacman’s nomination the first time around. “We put a hold on him. And all of a sudden, phones are blowing up,” Sheehy said. One of those calls came from Vice President JD Vance, who tried to defuse the situation: Sheehy dropped his hold and the administration gave Isaacman another shot. Just last week, he was renominated, demonstrating that Sheehy’s risky approach paid off — and that doing it privately probably increased his chances of success.

GOP lawmakers scoff at 50-year mortgages

Republicans are highly skeptical of the Trump administration’s proposal for a 50-year mortgage. The idea, which Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte pitched to President Donald Trump over the weekend, would mean lower monthly payments for homeowners. But lawmakers this week said that wasn’t enough to outweigh the downsides. “I worry about the interest that will accrue,” Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., said. Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., pointed to the amount of time it would take homeowners to pay them off. “Life expectancy is late-70s. I want people to own their home someday,” he said. “That’s not going to be the fix that gets us out of our housing affordability problems.” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he’s not “ideologically opposed” to the idea but wants “to go into the underwriting” to evaluate how the greater risks might raise costs instead of lower them.

— Eleanor Mueller

Shutdown casts long economic shadow

The longest government shutdown in US history may be over — but its economic fallout is still coming into focus. At least $11 billion in real GDP will be gone for good, according to the Congressional Budget Office. And key economic data, including employment and inflation numbers for October, will likely never be released. The latter means “we’re flying with a blurry windshield a little longer,” economist Guy Berger said. That’s a problem for the Federal Reserve, which must decide next month whether the job market is declining fast enough to cut interest rates. “This is not just academic,” Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute said. “There are real stakes here.” He added that the data that is released may be questionable, because government workers will be attempting to collect weeks-old information: “You’re going to get lower-quality data as a result.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump plows ahead with trade deals

The Trump administration is pushing forward with its trade deals as the Supreme Court weighs the legality of the president’s tariff regime. Officials announced new trade frameworks with Argentina, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Ecuador on Thursday, with a senior administration official telling reporters they expect “relief on a number of items” once the deals are finalized, likely within two weeks. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina will have a 10% tariff rate, the official said, while Ecuador’s rate will sit at 15%. The deals offer a new talking point for Trump and his top advisers, who are fielding more questions about the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at tariff cuts on items like coffee and bananas, which have seen price increases. The senior administration official said final trade agreements with the countries would include tariff exceptions for some items.

— Shelby Talcott

View: The impact of China’s trade strategy

US tariffs on China have put more pressure on Europe as Beijing has shifted its exports around the world. EU ministers on Thursday agreed to soon crack down on low-value parcels arriving from China, likely hitting retail behemoths Shein and Temu. But China’s strategy is having an even more consequential effect on emerging economies, Semafor’s Andy Browne writes. China is competing against advanced economies and the most vulnerable ones, churning out cutting-edge technologies as well as cheap T-shirts and skirts. “Beijing styles itself as a partner for the developing world, a force for economic and social progress from Asia to Latin America and Africa, in contrast to an America that has turned protectionist,” Andy writes. “But its economic model breaks with a centuries-old pattern in which wealthy countries cede their low-skill industries to economies making their way up in the world.”

Comey, James cases could be in jeopardy

The Justice Department’s cases against two prominent Trump foes could be in jeopardy. A Clinton-appointed federal judge plans to rule before Thanksgiving on whether Lindsey Halligan, the interim US attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, was lawfully tapped for the role. Former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney Gen. Letitia James challenged Halligan’s appointment in court on Thursday, as they look to fight the Trump administration’s cases against them (which both defendants argue are politically motivated). NBC and Politico each described federal judge Cameron Currie as skeptical of the Justice Department’s arguments, while The New York Times said she ultimately “gave little signal of where she was leaning.” Meanwhile, the Trump administration is going after another longtime critic: FHFA Director Pulte referred Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., to the Justice Department for alleged mortgage fraud.

Debatable: How to fight climate change

Ahead of COP30, billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates argued that addressing the impact of climate change on the world’s most vulnerable — not curbing emissions in the short term — should be the primary focus of the fight against global warming. He also rejected the “doomsday view” that climate change will decimate civilization, causing some on the right to declare victory and environmental activists to fume. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, told Semafor that the idea that “the world should shift away from curbing climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions is extraordinarily divorced from the basic facts of the present moment.” Meanwhile, Jason Walsh, who leads the environmental and labor group BlueGreen Alliance, argued targeting short-term emissions reductions is critical for innovation, but that prioritizing that over the economic well-being of poor communities would be a “moral failure.”

Is television the final form of all media? Derek Thompson, the co-author of Abundance, podcaster, and Atlantic writer joins Mixed Signals to explain what he sees as the forces behind what Ben and Max keep observing: The way in which podcasts and other forms of journalism appear to be getting their largest audience in an endless, passive feed of videos first observed by analysts of 20th century television. Derek discusses all that, as well as his own turn toward independent media and his personal pivot to video.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., is mulling running for governor of California and is set to decide within weeks, according to a person familiar.

Playbook: Democrats are seeking ways to blunt the Republicans’ lead on the highly popular no-tax-on-tips policy, with Nevada a particular battleground.

WaPo: Voters are seeing a host of familiar names on ballot papers this campaign cycle, as a wave of younger candidates descended from elected officials follow their relatives into politics.

Axios: “With questions of domestic affordability now threatening the president politically, at least some tariffs are fair game.”

White House

• The White House has invited members of Congress, executives, and administration officials to a Nov. 18 dinner in Washington with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. — Punchbowl
• Washington approved the first tranche of military sales to Taiwan since President Trump took office, raising tensions with Beijing.

Congress

• Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., suffered a fall due to a flare-up of a heart condition and has been hospitalized (but he says he’s doing OK).
• Some Senate Republicans who would benefit from a provision in the shutdown-ending funding bill allowing them to sue the federal government say they don’t want it (Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is a notable exception).
• Rep. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., is the only federal US official attending COP30.

Outside the Beltway