| Sixth straight month of gains on Wall Street |
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A meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, corporate earnings and central bank meetings: it was a busy week for investors. However, index movements were limited. Wall Street ended the week in positive territory, thanks to strong results from major tech stocks, while Europe ended slightly lower. |
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| This week's gainers and losers |
Up:
Teradyne +25.98%: The semiconductor company beat Q3 estimates, issued strong Q4 guidance, and received analyst price target upgrades, all fueling investor optimism.
Amazon +8.92%: The e-commerce and cloud giant has significantly exceeded expectations. Results were boosted by demand for artificial intelligence with AWS. E-commerce also grew across all geographical areas. The outlook remains positive.
Alphabet +8.18%: Google and YouTube's parent company is performing well thanks to growth in online advertising and Google Cloud, which is being driven by demand for artificial intelligence. The group will accelerate its investments in AI.
GSK +9.91%: the British pharmaceutical company reported better-than-expected quarterly results thanks to strong growth in its treatments for HIV, asthma, lupus and several cancers, as well as the strong performance of its vaccines outside the United States. Annual forecasts have been revised upwards.
Down:
Fiserv -46.72%: The company's share plunged more than 40% over the week after a downward revision of targets, and the departure of the chief financial officer.
Roblox -10.95%: The American studio behind the game of the same name has released mixed results, particularly regarding average revenue per daily active user. Significant investments are planned in security and infrastructure.
WPP -20.38%: The communications service provider has published disastrous results. The group has lowered its revenue forecasts, now expecting a decline of 5.5% to 6% compared with -3% to -5% previously.
Cigna -19.01%: The health insurer warned on Thursday that its margins would be under pressure over the next two years as its pharmaceutical benefits management division (which manages the purchase and reimbursement of medicines for policyholders) is set to change its business model.
Meta -12.19%: The parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp has announced that it is revising its spending forecasts upwards, a matter of concern for investors who want AI to generate more profits. |
| Commodities |
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Oil: Trade talks between the United States and China have resulted in a provisional agreement, providing for a reduction in customs duties and the resumption of Chinese purchases of American soybeans. Although this agreement is seen as positive for the global economy and therefore for oil demand, the market seems sceptical about its major impact on crude oil prices, especially after the United States allowed China to continue buying Russian oil despite the announced sanctions. Indeed, with regard to Russian oil, US sanctions against Russia have not caused any major disruptions to supply, as Russia continues to sell oil to key countries such as China and India. At the same time, the market's attention is turning to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. The group is expected to announce a slight increase in production of 137,000 barrels per day in December, in line with expectations. This increase, although modest, could accentuate the persistent bearish sentiment, with a surplus expected for 2026. In terms of prices, Brent is trading down at USD 64.8, compared to USD 61.10 for WTI.
Metals: Copper prices in London – 3-month delivery – peaked at nearly $11,000 per metric tonne. The momentum remains bullish, mainly due to concerns about global supply. Signs of declining production among several major mining producers are keeping up the pressure. On the precious metals front, the price of gold fell this week, hovering around the symbolic USD 4,000 mark. Despite this recent decline, gold remains up more than 50% since 1 January, supported by strong demand from ETFs and purchases by central banks. In the short term, the Fed's hawkish tone and reduced expectations of future rate cuts have strengthened the dollar, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
Agricultural commodities: Grains rebounded in Chicago following the announcement that China would purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually for three years. At the same time, the market remains deprived of forecasts. The US Department of Agriculture did not publish its weekly export sales report due to the federal government shutdown. Wheat (December 2025 delivery) traded slightly higher at 525 cents, corn rose to 420 cents and soybeans (January 2026 delivery) jumped to 1106 cents. |
| Macroeconomics |
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Macro: As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week. The other important announcement was the end of balance sheet reduction on 1 December. Jerome Powell calmed investors somewhat by indicating that a further cut in December was far from a ‘ foregone conclusion’. As a result, rates tightened. The 10-year US yield rose by around 10 basis points to around 4.1%. The Fed's announcement was also a result of the shutdown: with no economic statistics available, it is difficult to know where the US economy stands. In the eurozone, GDP figures exceeded expectations, thanks in particular to exports. This strong growth has allowed the ECB to keep its interest rates unchanged.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell 4% this week, dropping back below the USD 110,000 mark. This decline was also felt by Bitcoin Spot ETFs, with more than USD 600 million evaporating from these stock market products since Monday. Investors had their eyes on Strategy this week as S&P assigned the company a B- rating for its debt, a speculative category with a high risk of default. In recent years, the company, which has become a listed vehicle for holding Bitcoin, has financed its purchases through convertible debt and share issues. In mid-2025, it held approximately £70 billion in BTC for £15 billion in debt and preferred shares, but had little dollar liquidity and negative operating cash flow. S&P points to a currency asymmetry: assets in BTC but debts, interest and dividends in USD, which exposes the company to a liquidity crisis if BTC falls or market access tightens. MSTR shares are currently trading at £273, down 46% from their all-time high. |
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October ended on a positive note for the equity markets. This marks the sixth consecutive month of gains for the United States and the fourth for Europe. Next week's agenda still includes many corporate earnings reports. In the United States, Palantir, AMD, McDonald's and Airbnb are scheduled to report. In Europe, BP Plc, Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, Rheinmetall, Zurich Insurance and Engie will be reporting. However, uncertainty still reigns over the macroeconomic agenda due to the shutdown in Washington, which is preventing the publication of most indicators. The US federal government shutdown has now lasted for a month. Two major central banks will be adjusting their monetary policy. The Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are expected to keep their key interest rates unchanged, as both countries are facing accelerating inflation. |
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Things to read this week
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Which sectors and companies will be disrupted by AGI?
By Guillaume Baud - AGI is a term that is increasingly heard in technological and financial circles. But what does it really mean? This concept deserves the... Read more
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China closes the floodgates on US soybeans, with Brazil reaping the rewards
Fall 2025: The soybean fields of Dakota and Iowa stretch as far as the eye can see, golden with the season's harvest. But a question mark hangs over the silos:... Read more
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Faced with a lack of visibility, Jerome Powell is playing for time
A 25 basis point rate cut and the end of balance sheet reduction. The Fed's main announcements last night were indeed expected. However, the decision was not... Read more
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More than 20 years at your side
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