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China’s growth hits one-year low | The Guardian

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Business Today - The Guardian
A worker cleans the glass facade of a high-rise building in Beijing
20/10/2025

China’s growth hits one-year low

Plus: UK housing market, WPP, gambling tax

The agenda

Growth across China’s economy has slowed to its lowest level in a year, as the trade war with the US has dampened activity.

China’s GDP expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in the July-September quarter, new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows shows, broadly matching expectations. That’s a slowdown from the second quarter of the year, when GDP rose by 5.2%, and also weaker than the 5.4% growth recorded in January-March.

The annual slowdown casts something of a shadow over China’s latest four-day “fourth plenum” meeting which starts today, where Communist party leaders are gathering to hammer out the country’s next five-year plan.

But on a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in the third quarter, compared with a forecast 0.8% increase and a revised 1.0% gain in the previous quarter.

Today’s data showed that China’s retail sales remained weak while factory output strengthened, a blow to hopes that its economy can rebalance away from exports and towards domestic consumption.

Growth in industrial production rose to 6.5% year on year, up from 5.2%, while retail sales growth slowed to 3% from 3.4%

Despite slowing in the last quarter, China’s economy still seems to be on track to hit Beijing’s target of 5% growth in 2025.

China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace in 11 months in September, worsening the property sector’s drag on the economy.

New home prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, following a 0.3% fall in August, according to calculations by Reuters based on NBS data. Year-on-year, prices fell 2.2% in September versus a 2.5% drop in August.

That is a blow to China’s property sector, which is being dragged back by a large glut of unsold property following the end of the housing boom.

September and October are traditionally the peak season for property buying as developers launch sales campaigns to attract consumers during national holidays.


Today’s key events

10am BST: Eurozone GDP report for Q2 2025 (updated reading)

3pm BST: CB Leading index survey of the US economy

We’ll be tracking all the main events throughout the day on our business live blog

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