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 Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. For years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has slammed the US over its “long-arm jurisdiction” export controls. Now, Beijing has decided to play President Donald Trump at his own game. China last week shocked the world when it announced fresh curbs on rare earths, this time limiting exporters in third countries from shipping items containing even traces of its metals without getting Beijing’s permission first. The move mirrored constraints Washington has imposed on high-end chips for years and came after the US widened its own tech controls. The spat underscores the fragility of the US-China trade truce, which is set to expire Nov. 10. Even though Trump predictably responded by threatening a 100% tariff hike, analysts from Morgan Stanley to Nomura Bank still widely agree an expected meeting between the two leaders in South Korea this month will go ahead. Now, for both Xi and Trump — a US president who likes to talk about having cards to play — it’s a matter of who has the better hand. Trade data published today showcased China’s shipments overseas growing at their fastest pace in six months, blunting the impact of any tariff hike from the US.  Trump, by contrast, needs to find markets for US soybeans that Beijing won’t buy, while the approaching Christmas season makes the potential for empty shelves more sensitive. Losing a deal previously agreed with Beijing to keep Chinese app TikTok online in the US would also hinder his ability to connect with voters on the platform ahead of the 2026 midterms. After the volatility, there are now signs of de-escalation. The latest threats would apply only after the leaders’ meeting, leaving plenty of time for climb downs. Even so, Xi has made it clear he’s dropping the moral high ground and is happy to fight fire with fire. — Jenni Marsh  Global Must ReadsHamas freed all 20 living Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip this morning, releasing them to the International Committee of the Red Cross in two groups following the ceasefire deal clinched last week. Hamas has agreed to hand over the remains of all deceased captives, though it’s unclear if that will happen immediately. Trump is due to address the parliament in Jerusalem today before traveling to Egypt for a signing ceremony with world leaders including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Israelis react as they watch the release of hostages. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg French President Emmanuel Macron urged the nation’s fractured parliament to deliver stability for the country rather than precipitate another government collapse, with opposition parties planning a no-confidence vote as soon as this week. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who quit last week and was then reappointed on Friday, will present his 2026 budget to the National Assembly tomorrow and is expected to indicate how much of the president’s agenda he’s willing to sacrifice in order to remain in office. Trump said he’d consider arming Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles that would allow strikes deeper into Russia, but may first discuss it with Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of a bid to end the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he and Trump discussed air defense and long-range weapons in a second call in two days, ahead of a government delegation’s planned visit to the US this week. Putin could escalate his conflict with NATO into a “hot confrontation” at any moment, Germany’s top spy told lawmakers today in Berlin. Madagascar’s presidency condemned an army faction that declared support for anti-government protests and said President Andry Rajoelina would address the nation later today. The unit, which was instrumental in propelling Rajoelina to power in a 2009 coup, announced its support for the protesters over the weekend and said it was taking charge of the military and appointing a new commander.  Anti-government protesters in Antsiranana, Madagascar this month. Photographer: Fita/AFP/Getty Images UK Education Minister Bridget Phillipson insisted the government didn’t intervene in an aborted prosecution of two men accused of spying for China amid growing scrutiny over the role of senior officials in the collapse of the case. Members of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s cabinet have urged him to reassess his policy toward Beijing and take a tougher stance on the risks China poses to UK national security exposed by the case. President Javier Milei’s finance chief signaled the US Treasury’s backstop of Argentina’s peso is set to continue as the libertarian leader prepares to travel to Washington ahead of a crucial midterm vote in the South American nation. Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged heavy fire along their shared border, as tensions escalated after days of clashes and accusations that each had breached the other’s territory. Trump hinted he might intervene in the conflict.  Taliban security personnel keep guard at a border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Kandahar province yesterday. Photographer: Sanaullah Seiam/AFP/Getty Images As many as 237 people were arrested Saturday in Ivory Coast’s economic hub of Abidjan during a banned protest called by the opposition to reject upcoming presidential elections where incumbent Alassane Ouattara is seeking a fourth term. Seychelles elected Patrick Herminie as its new president, denying a second term to Wavel Ramkalawan, who had won plaudits for steering the Indian Ocean island nation through the coronavirus pandemic and reviving the economy. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Cobalt prices extended gains to a three-year high as export curbs in the world’s top-producing country threaten to create a shortage of the battery material and erode confidence in its ability to meet demand. The ban on shipments by the Democratic Republic of the Congo has roiled supply chains since it was imposed in February, while the quota system that will replace it from Thursday could push the market into deficit as soon as next year. And FinallyA statue in the center of the English town of Scunthorpe depicts a man and woman leaving a steelworks after a shift — a reminder of when the industry was the lifeblood of the community on the UK’s east coast. The foundries slowly withered over decades, and now the European Union’s announcement of higher tariffs on imported steel has put the remaining jobs at risk. It’s a tale of hardship repeated across the region.  A worker at a British Steel plant in Scunthorpe in April. Photographer: Darren Staples/WPA Pool/Getty Images Thanks to everyone who took part in Friday’s quiz, and congratulations to Thomas Hawley, who was the first to correctly identify Madagascar as the nation whose leader last week asked opposition protesters to give him a year to turn things around. More from Bloomberg
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