Good morning and welcome back, it’s Ainsley here with all the news you need to start your working week.

Today’s must-reads:
• US opens door to China deal
• Qantas customer data stolen
• Government mulls rare-earth fund

What's happening now

President Donald Trump’s administration signaled openness Sunday to a deal with China to quell fresh trade tensions while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talks. Vice President JD Vance called on Beijing to “choose the path of reason” in the latest spiraling trade fight between the world’s two leading economies, claiming that Trump has more leverage if the fight drags on. China said the US should stop threatening it and urged further negotiation.

Qantas said customer data stolen during a cyber incident in July has been released online, and that it’s working to determine the extent of the exposure. The breach involved 5.7 million records taken via a third-party platform, with most information limited to names, email addresses and frequent-flyer details, the airline said. A smaller portion included addresses, dates of birth, phone numbers, gender, and meal preference.

The government is considering setting minimum prices for critical minerals and investing in new rare-earth projects as part of a potential resources deal with the US, the Age reported Sunday. The government has begun talks with miners about contributing to a A$1.2 billion strategic minerals reserve, the newspaper said.

New Zealand lowered its 2050 methane target for livestock and other farm sources to a 14-24% cut from 2017 levels, down from the previous goal of 24-47%. The goal, approved by cabinet, aims to balance lower farm emissions with protecting food production and exports.

Cows stand on a hill at a farm in Hawera, New Zealand. Photographer: Brendon O'Hagan

News that Deloitte Australia will partially refund the government for a report sprinkled with apparent AI-generated errors has caused a local furor and spurred international headlines, writes Catherine Thorbecke for Bloomberg Opinion. Besides being a bad look for the Big Four firm at a time when Australians’ trust in government use of private consulting firms was already fraught, there’s a reason it has struck such a nerve. It has re-opened a global debate on the current limitations — and high cost — of the technology backfiring in the workplace.

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague, market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

On Friday a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar fell to a session low after Trump’s China tariffs threat, boosting havens such as the yen and Swiss franc. Over the weekend, Trump dialed back on the inflammatory rhetoric and the Aussie and the Kiwi bounced against yen and Swiss franc in early Sydney trade. This week some RBA-speak and jobs data on Thursday are Australia’s highlights, while a speech by RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway is New Zealand’s.  A weak opening is indicated by ASX stock futures.

Trump will look to seal the biggest diplomatic achievement of his second term when he travels to the Middle East to herald a deal ending the Israel-Hamas war and greet hostages emerging from two years of subjugation. The fragile ceasefire stands as a major test of Trump’s dealmaking abilities, one that would bolster his goal of being remembered as a peacemaker, if it lasts. 

Palestinians walk past destroyed buildings a day after the ceasefire took effect, in Gaza City on Oct. 11. Photographer: -/AFP

The day after crypto experienced its biggest one-day selloff, everyone in the industry was trying to figure out who was left holding the bag. A record $19 billion in bets evaporated and crypto prices tumbled, due in large part to newly severe China tariffs announced by Trump. A combination of factors — leverage, automatically triggered sales, a lack of liquidity at odd hours for global trading — fueled what might have been a less dramatic obliteration of positions.

Investors are once again preparing for big earnings-day stock moves, paying up to speculate in a market that’s faltering after it reached a record high. Options on S&P 500 Index members imply an average 4.7% fluctuation following corporate results, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s close to the level in July, when the anticipated move was the highest for the start of a reporting season since 2022, using JPMorgan’s release date as the kickoff. 

What to watch

• ANZ Group strategy day

One more thing...

When Andrew Pearse sat down in a packed federal court in downtown Brooklyn on March 6, the former star banker turned fraudster feared he could be facing up to 13 years in a US prison. His sentencing hearing was the culmination of a six-year legal process that had upended Pearse's world. The crowded public gallery was a reflection of the profile of the affair he was wrapped up in. He was a key actor in a $2 billion fraud — dubbed the Tuna Bond Scandal — which helped cripple the Mozambican economy and marked a major step in the failure of Credit Suisse, the mighty Swiss bank that collapsed in 2023. Admitting his part was only the start for Pearse whose life unraveled after his 2019 arrest. Read more in our Big Take.

Andrew Pearse. Photographer: Greg Funnell