The conventional wisdom is always right until it's not.
In Washington, the conventional wisdom on government shutdowns was that they backfire on the party that's out-of-power. Heading into the current shutdown, Capitol Hill insiders and other so-called experts warned Democrats that they would be fools to pick a budget fight now. As the shutdown enters its second week, it's clear that the pundits got this one wrong.
Democrats are winning the shutdown fight in the court of public opinion because they aren't holding out for some abstract principle or unreasonable demand. Instead, they are fighting to keep millions of Americans from seeing their health insurance premiums skyrocket as Affordable Care Act subsidies expire.
Republicans could have avoided this fight if they had extended the subsidies earlier this year. The longer the shutdown drags on, the more foolish they look for opposing something so popular and necessary.
Republicans know that, which is why they have tried to muddy the waters with falsehoods, pushing the false claim that Democrats want healthcare for undocumented immigrants. That kind of sleazy sloganeering might work in a legislative fight that Americans aren't watching closely, but it wilts under the bright lights of a shutdown. Republicans are left looking unserious.
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