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The US government is closed for non-essential business. Today’s newsletter looks at the impacts on climate and weather programs, and at how the shutdown could delay real estate transactions within flood zones. At least some National Parks will be spared, according to an internal memo.

Meanwhile, politicians, scientists and activists are gathering in the Vatican for Pope Leo XIV’s first major speech on climate later today. Arnold Schwarzenegger set the tone yesterday, calling those acting on climate “the true action heroes.”

You can subscribe to Bloomberg News to get the latest on how the shutdown is affecting government services, the market and more.

Four things to know about the shutdown

By Zahra Hirji and Lauren Rosenthal

The closure of the federal government will curtail or halt some US climate disaster preparedness and environmental programs — and even potentially delay real estate transactions within the nation's flood zones.

That’s because the major source of flood insurance for millions of homeowners is among the non-essential government services caught up in the shutdown, and new policies can't be initiated while it’s ongoing. The furloughs hitting government offices across the country, meanwhile, are expected to be particularly severe and extensive at the Environmental Protection Agency.

Weather forecasting, on the other hand, will continue uninterrupted because of its value to public safety. That should allow monitoring of hurricane threats and wildfires to continue.

Here is a snapshot of how the shutdown will affect key climate and weather functions, as well as the potential impact from Trump’s threat to fire workers instead of temporary furloughs.

Flood insurance lapses

Funding for the National Flood Insurance Program, which provides nearly $1.3 trillion in flood coverage for some 4.7 million policyholders, has officially lapsed. That will have potentially significant implications for current and prospective homeowners.

During a shutdown, the program is authorized to pay out claims for existing policies for the duration of their one-year term, at least until available funds run out, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. But NFIP can’t issue any new policies or policy renewals.

Water lines on a wall in a home following the flood in Hunt, Texas, in July Photographer: Eli Hartman/Bloomberg

Doug Quinn, executive director of the American Policy Association, is particularly concerned for people whose policies are set to expire in the coming days and weeks. Due to FEMA updating its approach on how to calculate premiums in recent years, he said, people may face dramatically higher premiums when renewals do eventually come through due to gaps in coverage.

Funding for NFIP has nearly lapsed many times in recent years, with the program getting more than 30 short-term reauthorizations since the end of fiscal year 2017. When funding ran out in June 2010, some 40,000 home sales a month were impacted, according to the Congressional Research Service.

EPA hit hard by furloughs

Nearly 90% of the EPA’s staff are being furloughed.

Unless specified as “exempted or excepted,” EPA staff will stop updating information on the agency’s website. In addition, the EPA will also pause research and publication, and stop issuing guidance, rules and policies.

The EPA has proposed rolling back multiple climate programs and regulations. That includes undoing power plant emissions rules, rescinding the agency’s ability to regulate greenhouse gases and ending a program for big polluters to report their emissions.

In response to a question about whether EPA employees working on those rollbacks would be furloughed, the agency press office said in an email that the “EPA will work to fulfill our statutory obligations, emergency response efforts, and Administration priorities.”

Weather forecasts will go on

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will require nearly half its current workforce to stay on the job since they perform essential public safety services.

If funding lapses, the National Weather Service will continue to provide forecasts and issue safety warnings “as normal,” spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said in an email Monday. That will be the case for two tropical storms which are churning up high surf, but aren’t expected to make landfall in the US.

A meteorologist monitors weather activity at NOAA  Photographer: Michael A. McCoy/Bloomberg

NOAA also operates a network of laboratories, as well as a fleet of ships and planes that collect data from the skies and at sea. The agency plans to call back many of its research crews and discontinue operations at several labs, with exceptions for work that protects against “significant and imminent threats to human life and property.” 

It may take up to 24 days for NOAA’s fleet of ships to return to the nearest port, while flight crews will have four days to return to the agency's operations center in Lakeland, Florida, and begin mothballing aircraft.

At an all-hands meeting for NOAA’s research division Tuesday, agency leaders encouraged staff not to put anything related to the shutdown in writing, including in emails to colleagues and research collaborators, according to people who attended the meeting but were not authorized to talk about it publicly.

Layoff worries spread

The EPA union is very concerned about the threat of layoffs, which the government refers to as a reduction in force.

“At a time when we are facing a global climate crisis and extreme weather events, the EPA workforce couldn’t be more critical,” Justin Chen, president of the agency union American Federation of Government Employees Council 238, said in a statement. The union called on the administration to “immediately retract its threats to furlough and lay off EPA workers whose livelihoods are being held hostage.”

Unlike previous shutdowns, the people familiar said, NOAA staff will be able to access their email accounts after funding lapses to check for notices related to a potential reduction in force.

Trump has threatened to fire “a lot” of workers, though no agencies have explicitly called for terminations in their shutdown plans.

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com.

Pre-shutdown cuts

2,000
The number of FEMA employees fired by the Trump administration. Many agencies were operating at reduced capacity even before the shutdown.

Violating the law?

“This is attempting to influence federal workers.”
Terry Campo
Republican lawyer who works closely with policymakers
The Trump administration used federal websites and employee email lists to blame the shutdown on Democrats, a move that some legal experts say violates federal law.

The shutdown risk for national parks

By Laura Bliss

National Park Service leaders have been instructed to keep most parks open if the federal government shuts down, according to an agency memo viewed by Bloomberg Businessweek.

The memo states that “park roads, lookouts, trails, and open-air memorials will generally remain accessible to visitors.” While most of the agency’s approximately 16,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough, President Donald Trump’s administration may use entrance fee revenue to maintain a small number of staff, including those responsible for law enforcement and emergency response, fire suppression, and health and safety.

The memo comes after days of uncertainty about how the shutdown could affect park operations, which were already facing operational challenges in the wake of the Trump administration’s massive job cuts. The NPS has lost 24% of its staff since January, according to an estimate by the National Parks Conservation Association. 

Remaining staff had mere hours before the potential lapse in congressional funding to figure out how to keep parks running, including sites as large and popular as Yosemite and Grand Canyon. The memo instructs parks to “develop daily cost estimates for all employees and services” for review and approval by the park service director, a task that involves extensive analysis and coordination, says Jesse Chakrin, the executive director of the Fund for People in Parks, an advocacy group. “This amount of prep and planning generally takes weeks, not hours.”

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com.

Pollution ‘terminator’

By Laura Millan

Schwarzenegger’s Climate Initiative is backing the Vatican conference. Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg

No single human being can “terminate” pollution alone, actor and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger told journalists in the Vatican yesterday at the launch of the Raising Hope for Climate Justice conference

American-born Pope Leo XIV will deliver his first major climate speech at the event. Paris Agreement architect Laurence Tubiana and Brazil environment minister Marina Silva will be there, along with other influential scientists and activists.

“You have 1.4 billion Catholics in the world,” Schwarzenegger said. “Every single one of this 1.4 billion Catholics can be a crusader for the environment and can help us terminate pollution.”

The event could give the climate movement a much-needed boost at a time when the Trump administration is dismantling climate science and vowing to exit the Paris Agreement, China’s plan to cut emissions falls short and the European Union struggles to come up with its own target. 

Sign up to Green Daily to get our take on Pope Leo’s speech for free and straight into your inbox.

More from Green

Brazil is ramping up security ahead of COP30 to combat two of the Amazon region’s most entrenched problems: the sexual exploitation of children and teenagers, and organized crime.

UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband defended the country’s renewable energy push, accusing the rising opposition party Reform UK of pursuing policies that would destroy jobs for working class Britons.

India will outsource geological investigations to speed up the approval of hydroelectric projects, including those meant for energy storage, a key part of the country’s energy transition pathway.

European banks are building a competitive edge in chasing opportunities tied to the green transition and “are emerging as industry leaders” in managing sustainable funds and underwriting green bonds, according to ECB executive board member Frank Elderson.

Worth a listen

An assembly line at a factory in India Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

Something remarkable is unfolding in developing countries. From Nepal to Costa Rica, more people are buying electric cars than fossil-fuel vehicles, as battery prices plummet and cheap home-grown EVs come to market. And in China, more electric cars will be sold in the last quarter of this year than the total number of all cars sold in the US.

Colin McKerracher, head of transport at BNEF, joins Akshat Rathi on Zero to unpack these trends, and what they mean for global oil demand.

Listen now, and subscribe on AppleSpotify or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

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