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Today’s Must-Reads

The Revolution Won’t Stay Online

In a report from a year ago, McKinsey & Co. breezily described Gen Z  as “extremely online. Gen Zers are known for working, shopping, dating, and making friends online; in Asia, Gen Zers spend six or more hours per day on their phones.” The troubles that have engulfed Nepal began when the government of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli decided to ban Facebook, YouTube and a score of other social media platforms. That caused massive and violent outpourings by a still inchoate movement of young people calling themselves “Gen Z protesters,” channeling fury over corruption and nepotism in the altitudinous Himalayan nation (the capital Kathmandu is about 4,500 feet, or 1,400 meters, above sea level). The median age of the nearly 30 million people in Nepal is 25. That means a huge proportion of the country can be categorized as part of the Gen Z cohort, or people born between the years 1996 and 2010.

As Karishma Vaswani wrote this week, “Blocking the apps was the immediate catalyst for their frustrations, another reminder of living under a government that is out of touch with their concerns. These platforms are critical tools in a country where approximately one in four live below the national poverty line. They’re a way to receive remittances and stay in touch with friends and loved ones.” More than a quarter of Nepal’s GDP comes from overseas Nepalese sending money back electronically to their families.

The convulsion seemed to take moments to erupt — and the destruction has been immense in a country that has experienced its share of trauma this century. In 2001, the crown prince massacred the royal family, including his parents, the king and queen. The monarchy was abolished a few years later. 

With the government ousted in a Kathmandu aflame, Nepal is in chaos: Attempts to set up an interim government have been stymied by the leaderless Gen Z mob.  Karishma points out that Indonesia recently saw protesters — mostly young — rebel in multiple cities over social inequality and political privilege. That led to some government concessions. Few believe the issues that brought people into the streets have been fully addressed. And we shouldn’t be surprised to see the generational, social media-powered furies sweeping through other countries where the young are disenfranchised in great numbers. After all, Gen Z makes up around 2 billion of the world’s 8 billion people — a quarter of humankind.

Meanwhile, in Other Social Media “News”

Japan’s aging and shrinking population is slowly forcing the country to come to terms with the need for increased immigration to fill burgeoning labor shortages. But the memes floating around are complete fiction. Gearoid Reidy does a quick roundup of the falsehoods: “You might have read that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is planning to ‘import millions of Africans and Kurds’ into Japan — and that this is why he’s stepping down. Maybe you’ve seen the plans for Tokyo to designate special ‘hometowns’ within the country that will become free havens for African immigrants on special visas. Or perhaps the recently announced suggestion to bring in half a million Indians into the country?”

None of the above is true. And a lot of the disinformation is coming from foreigners who hold only to the ignorant notion that “Japan has fallen.” Among the propagators is Elon Musk, master of X. Japan’s immigrants are likely to grow from 3% share of the total population to about 7% by 2070. But unlike other parts of the world, says Gearoid, “Japan is seeing immigration not of the impoverished, but of a large, rich Chinese middle-class — who can often afford to outspend locals.”

The procedural issue is an important one: the government needs to have a serious public discussion about the future, about what Japan is all about and what it can look like.“That means adjusting everything from property rights and healthcare to attaining citizenship (sometimes considered easier than permanent residence.) It is only in recent months that politicians have started attempting to coordinate these policies. A national strategy is needed,” says Gearoid.

Telltale Charts

“For the last few years, climate and energy policymakers have convinced themselves the world was inexorably moving away from fossil fuels. Breaking news: It is not. … The annual report being prepared by International Energy Agency, which represents the views of the world’s richest nations, shows the alternative — decades more of robust fossil-fuel use, with oil and gas demand growing over the next 25 years — isn’t just possible but probable. That means more carbon-dioxide emissions that exacerbate the climate crisis.” — Javier Blas in “The Myth of Peak Fossil-Fuel Demand Is Crumbling.”

“Faced with a hefty bill for his big projects, Indonesia’s president has turned to a trusty source. The central bank will lend a helping hand. Not just through cutting interest rates but by alleviating the cost of at least some borrowing on the part of Prabowo Subianto’s administration. …  In Jakarta, this budget financing is referred to as ‘burden sharing.’ That’s a neat euphemism, which was employed during the most challenging days of the pandemic when Bank Indonesia bought bonds directly from the government. A less polite way of describing what went on then is debt monetization, a definite no-no in normal times that blurs the line between fiscal policy and a nominally independent agency setting interest rates.” — Daniel Moss in “Prabowo Is Testing Investors’ Trust With His Finance Plan.”

Further Reading

The Murdoch dynasty’s curious take on conservatism. — A.J. Bauer

Two weeks that shook the world order. — Hal Brands

A battery-powered Marshall Plan. — David Fickling

Asian manufacturers won’t be broken by ICE. — Juliana Liu

Kering is sweating out the luxury. — Andrea Felsted

How Trump is remaking Latin America. — Juan Pablo Spinetto 

India’s ambivalent tax reform. — Andy Mukherjee

The S&P 500’s human touch. — Marc Rubinstein

Three big banks don’t make Italy a winner. — Paul J. Davies

Walk of the Town: Down the Tubes

London’s tube — its metro or subway, as the system would be called in Paris or New York — has been down all week because of a labor dispute. That usually wouldn’t faze me because I try to walk whenever I can. But when everyone else seems to have jumped on the electric lime rent-a-bikes to get from commuter train lines to their offices, it’s become a bit of a hazard. The grim, get-out-of-my-way march up from the underground toward work has been transferred to aggressive biking. I was almost run down three times in one morning by bicyclists weaving with impunity against traffic lights and around cars stuck in jams. 

Here’s the morning horde of bikes outside the Bloomberg building on Thursday, the final day of the strike.

Commuter alternatives. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg

As Matthew Brooker points out, “The disruption has been significant: Offices, shops and restaurants in the City of London financial district have been quieter than usual; rentals of electric bikes and e-scooters have surged. Concerts have been rescheduled, including two at Wembley Stadium by bland-rock favorites Coldplay.”  The biggest victim, however, may be the government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Says Matthew: “The strike arrived when it is already in turmoil, following the forced resignation of Starmer’s deputy Angela Rayner and an emergency cabinet reshuffle. Labour came into office promising better industrial relations, given its historic ties with the unions. One of its actions was to repeal a Conservative law that required key public-sector workers to maintain minimum levels of service during strike action.” Well, there was next to no minimum. “Days of transport chaos in the capital add to the impression of an administration adrift and unable to influence the course of events,” Matthew says.

Drawdown

Do you believe in negative charisma?

”What do you mean I suck all the oxygen out of the room?!” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg

Notes: Please send air-tight arguments and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net.

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