Welcome to the Brussels Edition. I’m Suzanne Lynch, Bloomberg’s Brussels bureau chief, bringing you the latest from the EU each weekday. Make sure you’re signed up.

European allies are wrapping up a meeting this afternoon in Paris co-hosted by Emmanuel Macron, in the latest show of support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The gathering of the so-called “coalition of the willing” is taking place amid increasing concern that Russia is poised to mount a new offensive on Ukraine, our Bloomberg team reports today.

At a meeting last week in Toulon, German and French officials discussed the massing of Russian troops outside Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian-held stronghold in the eastern Donetsk region. Zelenskiy said on Friday that Russia had relocated 100,000 soldiers to the frontline outside the city. Just this morning, the Polish army announced that drones crossed into Polish airspace twice last night.

The developments are a bleak reminder of the reality facing Ukraine and Europe as the much-anticipated talks between Ukraine and Russia have failed to materialize despite the promises of last month’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Emmanuel Macron with European leaders at the Coalition of the Willing Summit, in Paris, on Sept. 4.

Top of the agenda at today’s meeting in Paris, which was attended by US envoy Steve Witkoff, is security guarantees for Ukraine. The elephant in the room is not just what kind of security support the US is prepared to offer — it’s whether European allies are prepared to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.

While France and the UK are in favor of sending a limited number of personnel, Poland is opposed and Germany has been wavering. Significantly, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius shot down European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s assertion that there are “precise plans” for European forces to engage in Ukraine as premature. He (correctly) pointed out that the EU has no authority over the decision to send troops, which is the prerogative of member states.

Also this morning, NATO chief Mark Rutte warned in a speech at the IISS Prague Defence Summit that China is preparing for long-term confrontation, pointing to its display of military might at its Victory Day parade in Beijing this week that included the presentation of two gigantic new intercontinental ballistic missile designs.

Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas got a dressing-down from Beijing over her description during the week of Xi and his allies who had traveled to China for the once-in-a-decade military parade as “an autocratic alliance.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun dismissed her comments as “preposterous and irresponsible.”

The Latest

• French President Emmanuel Macron will seek to avoid calling a snap election if his prime minister is brought down in a confidence motion next week,  Samy Adghirni reports this lunchtime from Paris.
• Polish President  Karol Nawrocki secured what he wanted from Donald Trump in his meeting yesterday — a commitment that the US won’t pull troops from his country and could even increase their presence.
• Central bankers globally are sounding the alarm over White House attacks on the Federal Reserve, with Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau the latest to do so.
• Keeping Norway’s sovereign wealth fund out of politics has been a central tenet of the Nordic nation since the fund — the world’s biggest — was set up in the early 1990s to manage the surplus revenue from North Sea oil production. It’s now an election football.
• Portugal declared a national day of mourning after 15 people died in a tram derailment, one of Lisbon’s most tragic transport-related incidents.

The site of the tram accident in Lisbon, on Sept. 4.

Seen and Heard on Bloomberg

Sell-off? What sell-off? From our Bloomberg Radio studio in Brussels, we’ve been tracking the recovery in European government bonds. That’s easing some of the pressure on cash-strapped EU governments as they prepare their budgets for 2026.  Pooja Kumra, Senior European & UK Rates Strategist at TD Bank warned this morning that borrowing costs remain high, particularly in France. She told Bloomberg’s Stephen Carroll that her fear is “that rates just stay elevated at these levels because markets will not get any answer for at least next two, three months. We need a new budget.”

Chart of the Day

A crunch in public finances is forcing Vienna to increase the cost of its annual public transport ticket for the first time in 13 years, ending a euro-a-day fare for unlimited travel on city buses, trams and underground subways. Commuters in the Austrian capital will have to pay at least €461 for a full-year pass from January, a 26% increase from the current €365 price.

Coming up

• Polish President Karol Nawrocki meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome later today
• European Council President Antonio Costa holds a press conference with Bulgarian Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov this evening
• President Zelenskiy will meet with Slovakian Leader Robert Fico and Costa in Uzhhorod, Ukraine, tomorrow
• EU energy ministers meet for an informal gathering in Copenhagen today and tomorrow

Final Thought

Latvian soldiers give citizens a demonstration of military weapons alongside NATO warships at the passenger port in Riga, Latvia, on Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022.

Latvia’s defense minister, Andris Spruds, says the country should start drafting women into the military in 2028 as part of an effort to expand the size of its armed forces. It wouldn’t be the first EU nation to do so — Denmark announced in March that it would include women as part of its military service from next year. While Latvia wants to double the size of its armed forces to confront the Russian threat, it’s faced challenges, including a low birth rate and an ageing population.

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