Good morning, it’s Carmeli coming to you from another cold Sydney morning with all the latest headlines.

Today’s must-reads:
• Albanese walks fine line between US and China
• Australia opposes changes to Taiwan status quo
• Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Russia

What's happening now

While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese traveled to China determined to focus on trade and jobs, navigating the tensions between the US and China, particularly over security flashpoints like Taiwan, will loom over this trip all week. He was effusive during his first two days in Shanghai on the prospect of greater trade between the two nations, but he played down questions on defense spending and Taiwan.

Anthony Albanese during an event in Sydney on July 11. Photographer: Steven Markham/Image Source

Albanese was grilled on Australia’s position on Taiwan after reports of US pressure to clarify its role if China invaded. He said Australia opposes any unilateral moves to change the Taiwan Strait status quo. “We have a clear position, and we have been consistent about that,” he said at a press conference in Shanghai.

Across the ditch, New Zealand retail card spending fell in the second quarter, adding to signs that an initial spurt of economic growth early this year has all but disappeared. Purchases on debit and credit cards at retail stores fell 0.7% from the first quarter, when it was unchanged, Statistics New Zealand reported.

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague, market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

Stocks, the dollar and Treasury yields all edged higher as markets await US inflation data later today that will give a good look at tariff impacts on prices. Geopolitics weighed on the euro as Donald Trump dangled 100% “secondary” tariffs on Russia if Vladimir Putin fails to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine by early September. Trump is selling Ukraine high-end air defense missiles that NATO are paying for. These type of risks to sentiment left Aussie and kiwi as major currency laggards. Today only has Australian consumer confidence on the slate. ASX futures point to solid opening gains for local stocks.

US President Donald Trump threatened to impose stiff financial penalties on Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine even as he pledged fresh weapons supplies for Kyiv.

US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a meeting in the Oval Office on Monday, July 14. Photographer: Yuri Gripas/Abaca

Meanwhile, Trump indicated he is open to more trade negotiations, including with the European Union, even as he insisted that his letters threatening new tariff rates are “the deals” for US trading partners.

Thailand is poised to name its new central bank chief on Tuesday, ending a months-long process to find a successor to incumbent Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, whose rocky five-year tenure ends in September.

What to watch

• 10:30 a.m.  July Westpac Consumer Confidence MoM, prior 0.5%
• 10:30 a.m.  July Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, prior 92.6

One more thing...

Across the world where summer is blazing on, Thames Water has asked customers in parts of the UK to limit water use amid a prolonged period of hot, dry weather. Households in several English counties including Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Gloucestershire will not be allowed to water gardens, clean cars or fill up pools starting July 22, according to the supplier. 

A sign at the entrance to the South Woodford pumping station, operated by Thames Water, in London.  Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg