Confusion Over Tariffs |
Despite a midweek wave of new tariffs announced by Donald Trump, financial markets in the U.S. and Europe continued setting records. But the president's latest overnight declarations have reignited investor concerns, prompting some end-of-week profit-taking. Canada is now facing a 35% surcharge, and other U.S. trading partners could see tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%, depending on the mood in the White House. With earnings season just getting underway, market volatility is likely to persist. |
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This week's gainers and losers |
Up:
Coinbase +8.79%: The stock hit record highs, shrugging off a rare double downgrade from H.C. Wainwright as the company rode momentum from bitcoin’s surge past $118,000.
Delta Air Lines +11.38%: The airline reassured investors, reporting stabilization in demand in the second quarter thanks to its premium customer base.
Blackstone +4.43%: The private equity firm has announced a private credit partnership with British insurer Legal & General. Like Apollo Global Management and BlackRock, Blackstone sees private credit as a strategic growth lever.
AMD +6.17%: HSBC is once again positive about the US semiconductor manufacturer. The bank believes that the latest generation of chips could compete with Nvidia products and highlights even greater potential with upcoming innovations.
Down:
CoreWeave: -23.83%: Stock plunged after Needham downgraded it from buy to hold, citing valuation concerns over its $9 billion all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific despite acknowledging the deal’s strategic fit.
WPP -19.73%: The advertising giant has lowered its annual forecasts after losing major clients (Mars, Coca-Cola, Paramount) and seeing a sharp slowdown in new contracts. The stock has hit its lowest level since 2009. The restructuring of WPP Media and the integration of AI are struggling to convince, while the CEO will step down at the end of 2025 with no successor named. Analysts fear further market share losses.
Fair Isaac -16.77%: The provider of the famous FICO Score, which rates the creditworthiness of borrowers across America, is seeing its long-standing model challenged. The company is affected by two major factors: restrictive monetary policy, which is slowing down lending, and, above all, the approval of VantageScore 4.0, a competing tool. However, widespread adoption remains uncertain, and Fair Isaac has arguments in its defense.
Autodesk -11.45%: According to Bloomberg, the specialist in 3D design and modeling software for industrial use is considering acquiring its competitor PTC. |
Commodities |
Energy: OPEC+ continues to gradually increase production, with another increase planned for September. This adjustment could create a surplus in the fourth quarter, putting some downward pressure on prices. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) have adjusted their forecasts. The IEA has slightly lowered its demand expectations for this year, while the EIA has lowered its growth estimates for US crude oil production, anticipating slower growth due to reduced drilling activity. Against this backdrop, trade tensions remain a concern and call for caution. Trump's fluctuating tariff policy is causing continued uncertainty in the oil market, impacting global economic growth expectations and, consequently, oil demand. This context explains why oil is struggling to regain ground. Brent is trading at USD 68.60 per barrel and its US equivalent, WTI, is trading at around USD 66.60.
Metals: Copper was hit hard by Donald Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports. US futures contracts surged by a record 17% following the announcement. In contrast, prices fell in London, where copper is trading down at $9,700 per tonne (spot price). Gold stabilized above $3,300 per ounce. The precious metal remains buoyed by rising international trade tensions.
Agricultural products: Traders are awaiting forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture, which are expected to confirm exceptional harvests due to favorable weather conditions in the Midwest. These forecasts come on top of significant Brazilian production, reinforcing the idea of oversupply in the grain market. This is having an impact on prices. Corn fell to 398 cents per bushel in Chicago (September 2025 contract), while wheat stabilized at 550 cents. |
Macroeconomics |
Macro: Investors seem to be losing interest in Trump's posturing on tariffs and prefer to focus on the earnings season that is getting underway. Given the weak growth forecasts, analysts are tending to be (very) conservative in their analyses, so expect to see a number of companies once again beat consensus estimates. As a savvy investor, don't miss the insights provided during investor meetings to gain some visibility on the future. In terms of strategy, equity indices remain well positioned and the renewed interest in small and mid-caps should be seen as a sign of confidence in the future (at least for the stock market). Also keep in mind that seasonality remains favorable until the end of the month.
Crypto: Bitcoin reached a historic milestone this week, surpassing $118,000 for the first time ever, with an 8% increase since Monday. Its previous record, set on May 19, 2025, at $112,000, is now behind it. The same excitement is evident in Bitcoin Spot ETFs: on Thursday alone, these exchange-traded products recorded $1.18 billion in net inflows, an all-time high for a single session. As a result, total assets under management reached $143.8 billion, an all-time high. This rally comes as "Crypto Week" kicks off in the US Congress, with several major bills on the regulation of the sector under discussion. This favorable political climate is reinforcing the institutional legitimacy of crypto assets. In the wake of this, Trump Media has filed an application with the regulator to create an ETF called "Crypto Blue Chip", structured around 70% bitcoin, 15% ether, and 8% solana. In short, all indicators are green for cryptos at the moment. The total market capitalization has now reached $3.6 trillion, flirting with its all-time high of $3.73 trillion at the end of 2024. |
The third week of July ushers in the return of earnings season for the market heavyweights. In the U.S., the spotlight will be on the big banks, with JPMorgan Chase kicking things off on Tuesday. Netflix, GE Aerospace, and PepsiCo are also set to report. Across the Atlantic, ASML, Rio Tinto, Richemont, Novartis, and ABB will take center stage. Investors will also be watching a pair of key macroeconomic updatesChina's second-quarter GDP and U.S. inflation data for Juneboth due Tuesday and likely to shape market sentiment. Have a great weekend. |
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Things to read this week
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Silly question: which is stronger, Nvidia or Bitcoin?
Here is a free exercise of questionable usefulness, but one that allows you to take snapshots of the market's two favorite risky assets over several time... Read more
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Tariffs: three months for nothing?
Yesterday, Donald Trump sent a letter to 14 countries notifying them of the tariffs that will be applied to them. The US president also postponed the... Read more
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The Week's Biggest Mergers Unpacked
This week saw a series of moves, from bold cross-border banking plays to regulatory shakeups in tech and entertainment. UniCredit's aggressive push into... Read more
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More than 20 years at your side
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