Superman, Summer Box Office Hits, and the Oscars |
Tuesday, deep breath, is Emmy nominations day. We posted our predictions earlier this summer, and eagerly await massive breakthrough showings for the likes of The Pitt, Adolescence, and The Studio. The Emmys don’t always love fresh blood, but this year, it’s good to be new.
In the meantime, the story this weekend in Hollywood is at the box office. I’m David Canfield, and all indications have Superman hurtling toward a major opening haul. It’s the latest bright sign at movie theaters that have also seen everything from an anticipated sequel like Jurassic World Rebirth to an A24 rom-dram in Materialists outperform projections—a hopeful sign both for the rest of July and August, and for the fall, when more complex, adult-skewing fare will face the fire (also, some safer bets like new Avatar and Wicked movies).
Not counting the dreaded COVID era, last year was the first Oscar best-picture lineup in a full decade that didn’t feature a summer release; the two blockbusters on the list, Dune: Part Two and Wicked, came out in the spring and fall, respectively. Perhaps not so coincidentally, awards went to heavily emphasized independent and international successes like Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez.
Superman is not necessarily about to crash the best-picture race, even though it’s emerging as an unlikely critical darling. Neither is Jurassic or 28 Years Later. When it comes to blockbuster prestige hits, spring’s Sinners is still in its own category this year. But each true box office surprise carries an added weight—and the summer, long the home of big comic-book movie rollouts and tentpole launches, is where awards narratives often get set.
So I’m keeping an eye out. Not only for what other anticipated films may boost moviegoing through to Labor Day—hey, maybe Darren Aronofsky’s Caught Stealing or the Benedict Cumberbatch–Olivia Colman romp The Roses will catch fire—but also for the smaller titles finding fans, like Eva Victor’s brilliant Sorry, Baby, which is performing well thus far in Los Angeles and New York. Americans are going to the movies right now, and that may just be worth recognizing. |
