Evening Briefing: Europe

Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose a 50% levy on Brazil over its domestic political affairs shows the rest of the world that nothing is off limits.

The US president linked the hike to the trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro — a right-wing populist — over an alleged coup attempt in 2022, in a letter posted on his Truth Social account yesterday. It was the most extreme case yet of Trump weaponizing trade policy to make unrelated demands. Brazil even sells fewer goods to the US than it buys.

US equity futures retreated amid uncertainty over the Trump administration’s trade policies, with S&P 500 contracts slipping 0.2%, even as stocks gained in Asia and Europe. — Caroline Alexander

What You Need to Know Today

Ukraine’s allies gathering in Rome to discuss the nation’s postwar revival will be forced to grapple with the reality that such a prospect is more remote than ever — a second consecutive night of attacks followed Moscow’s refusal to discuss a truce. Trump this week excoriated Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for “killing too many people” and pledged to send more weapons to Kyiv. Instead of discussing reconstruction, allies will regroup on how to muster resources so Ukraine can continue to repel Russia’s invasion, now in its fourth year.

OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October after its next monthly hike, we’re told. Saudi Arabia and its partners have a tentative plan to complete the revival of a 2.2 million-barrel supply revival in September, with another monthly tranche of 550,000 barrels. While discussions need to be finalized, the prospect of a halt whipsawed crude futures on Wednesday. Brent futures were down 0.9% at $69.57 a barrel.

Trump’s meeting with African leaders — from nations which hold deposits of critical and other minerals — shifts the focus “from aid to trade.” It also shows a sense of urgency in competing for scarce resources with China. The US president is struggling to reduce reliance on China for metals used in semiconductors, smartphones, clean energy and medical technology.

The EU reached a deal with Israel to allow more aid into Gaza. It covers “how many trucks will get in, how many crossings will be opened, distribution points so that people would receive help, water distribution,” Kaja Kallas, the bloc’s top diplomat, told Bloomberg TV. Trump has said negotiators were “very close” to securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. But a senior Israeli official indicated that while a truce could be agreed to in a week or two, it may not mean a de facto end to the 21-month-long war.

As Saudi Arabia spends trillions of dollars to reshape its economy, a little-known investment group overseen by the brother of de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman is emerging as a key power broker. Tharawat Holding, run by Prince Turki bin Salman, has taken on a role as a gatekeeper for foreign companies seeking to do business in Saudi Arabia. The firm derives its name from the Arabic word for treasure or wealth, and insiders say it oversees a web of assets worth at least $250 billion.

People who work outside are among the most exposed to dangerous, and potentially fatal, levels of heat and European countries are moving fast to protect them. Spain and Greece already limit such work on hot days, while France and some Italian regions passed similar legislation this year. Yet even some of the world’s most advanced regulations are not enough and the problem is getting worse, a new study shows, as climate change makes heat waves more frequent and intense.

Over the next few years, European countries will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on aircraft, artillery, tanks, drones and fortifications. This rush to beef up defenses has exposed a challenge: Almost without exception, Europe’s largest militaries face shortfalls in personnel, as demographic change, economic factors and long-term shifts in attitudes towards service weigh on their ability to recruit and retain soldiers. Some governments are raising wages, others are trying to invoke a sense of crisis or patriotic duty. Some have even reinstated or extended the draft, marking a profound change to the social contract.

Army reservists and instructor in firing training on the base of the 19th army engineer regiment, in Besançon, France. Photographer: cyril marcilhacy