Dear RealEcon readers,
Midnight on July 8 marked the end of the ninety-day pause that President Donald Trump put on the broad reciprocal tariffs he announced on April 2. As with much of Trump’s trade policy, however, the end marks a new beginning, as the president sent letters to fourteen trading partners earlier this week warning them of new reciprocal tariff rates effective August 1—unless deals can be reached in the interim.
What is the verdict on the pause? Clearly, Trump fell far short of his target of “ninety deals in ninety days,” but a handful of agreements—or frameworks for future agreements—were reached, new investments in domestic manufacturing announced, and tariff revenues raised. Market reactions were mixed, with the stock market rebounding from an early plummet after April 2, while the dollar weakened over the period.
In our lead item for this edition of RealEcon, CFR’s deep bench of trade and economic experts assesses the impact of the second Trump administration’s trade policy over its first six months. In addition to a collection of short takes, deeper dives by Inu Manak, Rebecca Patterson, Jonathan E. Hillman, and Edward Alden are also featured below. And as always, we highlight other impactful work on international economic policy.
Thank you for your interest in the RealEcon Initiative. I value your feedback on this newsletter and your ideas for how the initiative can have more impact.
—Matthew P. Goodman, Director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Director of the CFR RealEcon Initiative
