Inside the RBA decision that's confounded economists ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

The Reserve Bank blindsided the nation’s economists, and no doubt disappointed millions of mortgage holders and aspiring homeowners, by keeping interest rates on hold at 3.85% yesterday.

The markets had priced in a more than 90% chance of a 0.25-point rate cut, and all of the “big four” banks had also tipped a cut. Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ frustration was clear when he said it was “not the result millions of Australians were hoping for”.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock said rates were being held because the bank wants to see more indicators that inflation is still falling. Quarterly inflation figures are due at the end of the month.

Economist Stella Huangfu explains that while inflation pressures have indeed eased, the Reserve Bank is still feeling cautious. Ongoing growth in home prices, coupled with limited housing supply, could make future decisions even less clear-cut.

Margaret Easterbrook

Business Editor

Interest rates are on hold at 3.85%, as the Reserve Bank opts for caution over mortgage relief

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney

The surprise decision to hold rates isn’t a change in direction – it’s a pause for more information.

The US has high hopes for a new Gaza ceasefire, but Israel’s long-term aims seem far less peaceful

Ali Mamouri, Deakin University

President Trump is talking up a proposed 60-day ceasefire deal in Gaza. But recent history shows a truce is unlikely to lead to lasting peace.

American science is in crisis. It’s a great opportunity for Australia to snap up top scientists

Kylie Walker, Australian National University

As the US cuts science funding and international cooperation, Australia and other countries see a chance to capitalise on this American brain drain.

AI is driving down the price of knowledge – universities have to rethink what they offer

Patrick Dodd, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Universities have relied on expert knowledge being scarce, but AI is changing that. Tuition now needs to focus on human skills that machines still struggle to copy.

Some young people sexually abuse. Here’s how to reduce reoffending by up to 90%

Jesse Cale, Griffith University; Benoit Leclerc, Griffith University; Francisco Perales, Griffith University; Tyson Whitten, UNSW Sydney

New research out of Queensland shows there are rehabilitative ways to help reduce youth sexual crime - and youth crime overall.

XFG could become the next dominant COVID variant. Here’s what to know about ‘Stratus’

Paul Griffin, The University of Queensland

The WHO has classified XFG or ‘Stratus’ as a variant under monitoring. It may well become the dominant variant globally very soon.

Greek and Roman nymphs weren’t just sexy nature spirits. They had other important jobs too

Kitty Smith, University of Sydney

Nymphs offer us more than just stories of sexy nature spirits. They can reveal how ancient people thought about their world and connected with their landscape.

Can a pizza box go in the yellow bin – or not? An expert answers this and other messy recycling questions

Pooria Pasbakhsh, The University of Melbourne

Research shows most Australians believe they are good recyclers – but they’re often wrong. Here’s how to avoid common recycling mistakes.

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Consider counsellors, for counselling
"I’m just curious as to why your article on boosting mental health services only focussed on the high cost of professionals like psychologists and psychiatrists but didn’t consider counsellors who are trained specifically in counselling, and generally cost far less. They could be a very useful piece of the jigsaw puzzle."
Verity Grace

Women heroes
"What an excellent article by Rebecca McNaught and Jo Longman on the largely unrecognised role of women in disaster recovery. It didn’t make the news (unlike the ’tinny army’), but anyone who was involved in the Northern Rivers flood event of 2022 witnessed the monumental work of women in those first few weeks, and the community support and recovery work that they continue to lead three years later."
Kaylene Henry

Let’s get on with the job
"After decades of ignoring climate change scientists, demonising environmentalists and punishing governments for seeking to act on evidence of the impact of global warming and climate change, now we hear the call for the government to ‘fix’ the predicted devastation communities are faced with.  Surely it’s time to put an end to the climate wars and begin to work collaboratively."
Melanie Carter

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