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What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The one thing bitcoin (BTC) bulls constantly discuss is liquidity easing through Fed interest-rate cuts and the possibility of rates falling back to zero, just as in 2020-21. Back then, the zero rate triggered an unprecedented bull run throughout the financial markets, including low-cap altcoins.

Now, new analysis from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco shows a 9% chance of the benchmark fed funds rate falling to the so-called zero lower bound within the next seven years. Current data shows expectations for elevated interest rates, but the chance of a zero level remains significant over the medium to long term, it said.

That's in the long term. The probability of rates falling that low in the next two years is just 1%. But remember, all it takes is just one black swan event like the Covid crash for the Fed to consider zero rates. For now, rates remain at 4.25% with traders pricing in a single 25 basis-point cut for the rest of the year.

The central bank, however, has been conducting stealth rate cuts, that is it's easing liquidity through measures such as reducing the "enhanced supplementary ratio" and freeing up money for banks to buy Treasury notes, according toAlexander Blume, CEO at investment adviser Two Prime. Furthermore, the Treasury recently expanded its buyback program, injecting additional capital into the economy, Blume said.

It's no surprise, then, that some large traders are anticipating renewed bullish volatility and pouring money into the $130K bitcoin call option on Deribit. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered net inflows for the third consecutive day on Monday, and traders are also chasing bullish futures bets in XRP.

In other news, Bit Digital completed its strategic Treasury shift to ether (ETH)following a $172 million public equity raise and the sale of 280 BTC. Dubai approved the QCD Money Market Fund, a joint product from Qatar National Bank and DMZ Finance. Australia-listed crypto fund manager DigitalX (DCC) raised A$20.7 million ($13.5 million) to boost its BTC stash.

Patrick Hansen, Circle's EU strategy director, disclosed on X that 53 companies have obtained licenses in the six months since the European Union implemented the MiCA crypto-asset regulation. The data shows strong demand for compliance-friendly products. Tether, the issuer of the world's largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, hasn't yet sought a license.

In traditional markets, the yield on the Japanese 30-year government bond yield rose to 3.11%, the highest since May 22, a sign of renewed volatility in government bonds across advanced nations. Stay alert!

The launch of StarGate, VeChain’s new staking platform, kicks off an exciting era of enhanced rewards and more attractive tokenomics for the real-world-proven blockchain. 

StarGate, part of the ‘VeChain Renaissance’ technical roadmap, delivers greatly enhanced staking APYs, while Renaissance introduces consensus upgrades, interoperability tools, and new features that make building on VeChain more rewarding than ever.

Key features and benefits of StarGate include:

Staking Nodes from as low as 10K $VET (~$200)

A massive 9.1% APY for certain Node types

Unique, secure NFT-based staking model

A 5.48 Billion $VTHO ($10+ Million) bonus pool for the first 6 months

Intuitive staking and reward claiming mechanics

StarGate is more than a staking program - it's the launch of a more decentralized, economically attractive era for stakers and builders alike. With thousands of new Nodes onboarded, VeChain welcomes a new generation of holders joining its mission to deliver the real-world potential of blockchain, and drive Web3 mainstream.

Visit StarGate to learn more.

Crypto

• July 9, 11 a.m.: The Isthmus hard fork activates on Celo (CELO) mainnet, an Ethereum layer-2 network, aligning its L2 stack with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and improving scalability, interoperability and security through key Ethereum Improvement Proposals.
• July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing on WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a critical step in the exchange's restructuring after the $234 million hack on July 18, 2024.
• July 15: Alchemist staking update launches, allowing token holders to stake ALCH for access to advanced features, premium benefits and ecosystem rewards, potentially boosting token utility and demand.
• July 15: Lynq is expected to debut its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.

Macro

• July 8, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases May retail sales data.
  • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
  • Retail Sales YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 4.8%
• July 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases June consumer price inflation data.
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.38% vs. Prev. 0.3%
  • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.22% vs. Prev. 4.06%
  • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.27% vs. Prev. 0.28%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.31% vs. Prev. 4.42%
• July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid hearing titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.
• July 9, 2 p.m.: Release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the June 17–18 meeting.
• July 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June consumer price inflation data.
  • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 026%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.32% vs. Prev. 5.32%
• July 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended July 5.
  • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 233K
  • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1980K vs. Prev. 1964K
• July 10, 1:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth. Livestream link.
• July 10–11: The fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, bringing together global leaders and stakeholders to advance Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction amid the war with Russia.
• Aug. 1, 2025, 12:01 a.m.: Reciprocal tariffs take effect after President Trump’s July 7 executive order delayed the original July 9 deadline, making this the start date for higher tariffs on imports from countries without trade deals.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• None in the near future.

Governance Votes & Calls

Unlocks

Token Launches