Prognosis
Mazdutide gets approval.
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Hi, this is Amber in Hong Kong, where I spent the past month chatting with experts about their expectations of China’s newest weight loss drug. But before I explain … 

Today’s must-reads

  • Moderna’s experimental mRNA flu shot met its goals in a late-stage trial.
  • The US Supreme Court ordered appeals courts to revisit their rulings on transgender rights
  • A former Pfizer executive has been subpoenaed over whether he delayed positive Covid vaccine news until after the 2020 election.

Made in China

Shawn Qu, an esteemed endocrinologist who has treated patients with obesity at many of China’s top hospitals, remembers the entire hospital’s excitement when Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s weight loss treatments became available in China less than a year ago. 

“We finally have drugs,” said Qu, who leads SinoUnited Health’s Endocrinology, Metabolism and Thyroid Center in Shanghai. The availability of medicines have brought more patients to seek help from weight management clinics rather than beauty spas or commercial consumer products, he said.

Now, China’s doctors have another treatment at their disposal. On Friday, China approved Innovent Biologics’ mazdutide for weight loss, a turning point in China’s efforts to combat rising obesity and diabetes cases with local innovation. Mazdutide targets two different receptors in the body — GLP-1R and GCGR — to increase energy expenditure and metabolic rate. In large clinical trials, the drug appeared just as effective as Lilly’s bestselling Zepbound in helping patients lose weight. 

While mazdutide originated from Lilly – Innovent licensed rights to develop and sell the drug in China in 2019, and the American giant is running US trials for it – it’s widely viewed as a homegrown brand in China. This also marks the drug’s first approval anywhere in the world. 

With over 600 million Chinese adults projected to be overweight by 2050, China has a sizable need for weight loss treatments that’s only starting to be filled. In the short time Novo and Lilly’s drugs have been on the market for weight loss, not everyone has been able to get it.

Analysts estimate China’s market for so-called GLP-1 drugs could grow to between $5.6 billion and $11.4 billion a year. 

But Innovent’s mazdutide launch is just a start. China has more than 30 late-stage obesity drug candidates under development. Competition is expected to ramp up next year when cheaper alternative versions of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo’s Wegovy, launch after the peptide’s China patent expires. That could put pressure on all companies to lower prices, which Qu said would be key as patients and doctors decide which treatments to use.

Some are also eyeing overseas potential of next-generation treatments such as long-awaited GLP-1 pills and once-every-two-weeks injections. Several firms have already licensed their drugs to US or European drugmakers like AstraZeneca and Merck for further clinical development outside the country.

The treatments are expected to boost China’s nationwide campaign to curb obesity, a three-year initiative that began in 2024. The National Health Commission’s weight management committee, of which Qu is a member, is working to standardize treatment guidelines and oversight for the numerous clinics being set up around the country. 

“There are many ways to lose weight,” he said. “There’s no best option, only a suitable option.” — Amber Tong

What we’re reading

It was the largest health care fraud bust in US history. The Washington Post has a special report on Operation Gold Rush. 

Many older people suffering from anemia can’t tolerate iron tablets. The New York Times reports on an alternative treatment. 

Your brain may be aging faster than your body, the Wall Street Journal reports

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