Balance of Power
By unleashing US military power on Iran, President Donald Trump has plunged the world into a moment of dangerous uncertainty.
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Welcome to a special edition of Balance of Power on the US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Each weekday we bring you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.

By unleashing American military power on Iran, President Donald Trump has plunged the Middle East — and the world — into a moment of dangerous uncertainty.

In an operation dubbed “Midnight Hammer,” Trump said US planes bombed Fordow, a uranium-enrichment facility buried deep under a mountain and seen as vulnerable only to American “bunker-buster” munitions. Sites at Natanz and Isfahan were also struck.

Iran’s foreign minister called the attack “outrageous,” and said “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty.” Israel applauded. Most American allies looked on in dismay.

The most serious foreign-policy decision of Trump’s second term so far risks angering his “America First” base of supporters, who elected him on a pledge not to involve the US in military entanglements in the region.

Trump may try to appease them by stressing the attack’s limited nature and that he’d repeatedly said Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons.

His decision also flew in the face of weeks of warnings by US partners in the Middle East, Europe and beyond. They ultimately proved unable to sway Trump and it’s not clear if they’ll get a vote in what comes next.

Middle East states are torn between anxiety over the escalating violence and quiet satisfaction at the setback for Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Already reeling from multiple rounds of Israeli attacks, Iran’s government will likely feel compelled to respond in some form. It retains a network of proxies to turn to across Iraq, Syria and Yemen, as well as the ability to menace US military bases in the Gulf and international shipping.

Still, Trump warned that any retaliation could be met with massive US force. Iran “must now make peace,” he said in a social-media post.

It remains unclear if this is the end of Trump’s military campaign, or whether the confrontation could spiral into a push for regime change in Tehran.

As they assess the damage and calculate their next move, Trump’s words will likely carry greater weight with Iran’s leaders than any of his previous threats. Peter Martin

For our live blog on the latest developments in the Middle East, click here.

WATCH: Trump addresses the nation Saturday evening in Washington.

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The US strikes involved a decoy mission aimed at drawing attention from flight trackers, while the largest-ever deployment of B-2 stealth bombers delivered 30,000-pound bunker busters for the first time in combat. Pentagon officials described a 37-hour operation that included 125 aircraft, Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a submarine and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs. No US personnel were lost and there was no sign of return fire from Iranian defenses.

A Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Source: US Air Force

The operation may have damaged Iran’s known atomic capabilities, but it’s also created a monumental new challenge to work out what’s left and where. Rather than yielding a quick win, the task of tracking uranium and ensuring Iran doesn’t build a weapon just got more complicated, according to sources who monitor the country’s nuclear program.

Iran’s Arab neighbors urged restraint and warned of potentially devastating implications for the region, after the US operation highlighted just how much the resource-rich nations are hostage to forces beyond their control. Saudi Arabia condemned the violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Qatar warned it would have “disastrous consequences,” and Oman called it “illegal.”

China criticized the US attacks and again said it’s willing to join international efforts to restore Middle East peace. While China buys some 90% of Iran’s oil exports, in defiance of US curbs, the risk of secondary sanctions and the official stance against nuclear proliferation have prevented Beijing offering substantial assistance to Tehran besides rhetorical support.

The UK said its military assets weren’t involved in the US operation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer offered tacit backing to Trump’s move, saying he had “taken action to alleviate” the threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear program.

The US intervention comes at a fragile moment for the global economy, and the outlook now hinges on how forcefully Iran retaliates. The World Bank, the OECD and the IMF have all downgraded their forecasts in recent months and any significant increases in oil or gas prices, or disturbances in trade, would act as yet another brake on growth. Terminal subscribers can access our latest Bloomberg Economics analysis here.

Middle Eastern stocks rose, led by Israel and Egypt, as the region’s traders bet the US intervention in the Iran conflict will accelerate its end. Traders are forecasting a drop in stocks, a jump in crude prices and possibly a strengthening of the dollar as investors potentially head for safety.

British Airways and Singapore Airlines canceled flights to the Gulf region, increasing travel disruption in the region after several American and European airlines halted flights to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar last week. The moves highlight growing worries in a slice of the Middle East that is typically considered safe and sheltered from regional dislocations.

Iran has threatened multiple times to shut the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow stretch of water through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows each day. But in practice, Tehran has numerous less-drastic options at its disposal to calibrate a response that hurts its enemies while limiting the impact on allies like China.

Watch Live: A special edition of Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power is coming up at 6 p.m. in New York, with hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz. Watch on Bloomberg Television, on the Bloomberg Terminal at TV <GO> and on YouTube.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

Brent crude-oil futures have jumped 11% since Israel attacked Iran, but with sharp moves up and down from one day to the next. The rally is expected to restart tomorrow, after the US assault dramatically raised the stakes in a region that accounts for a third of global oil output. From frenzied options markets, to soaring freight and diesel pricing, to a radical redrawing of crude’s pivotal forward curve, volatility is expected to intensify in the week ahead.

And Finally

A rescue worker evacuates children from the site where a missile launched from Iran struck Haifa, Israel today. Photographer: Baz Ratner/AP Photo

Israelis woke to a new reality after the US bombing of Iran’s three main nuclear sites, apparently diminishing a threat they’ve considered existential for decades. The attack was embraced across the political spectrum, lauded as an historic symbol of US-Israeli cooperation at a time when the Jewish state has been shunned by others over its war in Gaza. Others acknowledged that what comes next is far from clear, including Iran’s potential responses.

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