Evening Briefing: Europe
Eurozone economies led by Ireland and Germany expanded twice as much as previously reported to begin the year, with exports surging in antic
View in browser
Bloomberg

Eurozone economies led by Ireland and Germany expanded twice as much as previously reported to begin the year, with exports surging in anticipation of US tariffs. Eurostat’s upward revision to 0.6% growth caught most economists by surprise and capture a currency union that’s so far proving resilient. 

For all the Sturm und Drang hurled by the Trump administration, Europe’s macro-economic picture still shows light on the horizon. Private equity investors have a new-found love for Germany and are prowling for deals. Defense technology stocks are booming as investors pour into meeting EU security requirements. Berlin has awakened from its slumber and is newly focused on resolving a deadlock with France over how to deepen the bloc’s capital markets

The reassessment of European fortunes takes place as jitters spread among investors eyeing what’s taking place on the other side of the Atlantic. The US has ceased to be a secure destination because of risks stemming from Trump’s tax and spending bills, according to the chief economist at French asset manager Carmignac. But even as today’s economic numbers showed positive eurozone momentum, the data is still out on whether the bloc can capitalize longer term on the woes being suffered by its close ally. —Jonathan Tirone

Can Europe defend itself? You're invited to our virtual briefing on the geopolitical climate and industrial context that will shape the next decade, featuring an exclusive presentation by Bloomberg Intelligence plus insights from Bloomberg journalists and industry experts. Join us Wednesday, June 18 at 3:30 p.m. BST. Register today

What You Need to Know Today

A capital conundrum is looming for UBS. After buying troubled Credit Suisse a little more than two years ago, the full cost of the takeover for the largest global wealth manager is only now about to emerge. The Swiss lender is facing as much as $26 billion in fresh capital requirements, according to details of a government bank-reform proposal released today. The additional buffer is being prescribed to make UBS more resilient in the face of a financial crisis. Separately, a document written by Swiss financial regulators and submitted at a London trial of former Credit Suisse executives showed serious risk-management breaches


China is betting that a short-term détente with Trump will lead to more mid-term victories. By taking the US president’s phone call earlier this week, Xi appears to be betting that a reset in ties will lead to tangible advantages in the weeks and months ahead, including on tariff reductions, an easing of export controls and a generally more civil tone. As cooler heads show signs of prevailing, global investors are starting to trickle back into Chinese equities. Listen to our Merryn Talks Money podcast with Fidelity’s Dale Nicholls, who explains why the Asian giant is becoming a viable place to park your money. 


A luxury yacht builder for the wealthy is caught up in spy claims. Italian prosecutors are looking into allegations that Italy’s Ferretti — owned by Chinese conglomerate Weichai Group — may have been the subject of espionage. The company confirmed to us that surveillance devices were discovered inside its offices. In the months before the bugs were discovered, the relationship between senior managers at Ferretti — one of the world’s leading designers of luxury motorboats — and its biggest shareholder, had soured over a share buyback program.

A Ferretti Custom Line Mambo yacht during the Discover Boating Miami International Boat Show in Florida. Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg

Congo is becoming a top destination for ambitious Chinese hustlers frustrated by a lack of opportunity at home. Home to 110 million people, with an abundance of critical minerals needed to power the modern world, Congo is attracting a variety of small-time Chinese entrepreneurs. Some just want to lie low and get away from the Chinese grind. Others run brick factories, burger chains and bus routes. All of them primarily service Chinese companies and immigrants. 


Trump’s tariffs are personal for the makers of Harris Tweed. “Trump might portray himself as a man of Scottish heritage, he might have used the family Bible at his inauguration,” one fourth-generation weaver told us, but “that man doesn’t care. He’s out for himself, nobody else.” Tweed exports are tiny compared to the £59.3 billion ($80.3 billion) total value of UK goods sent to the US. But even after Trump’s deal with the UK government — which reduced the levies for some sectors — the crofters and weavers face the same 10% tariff rate as much bigger companies.

Margaret Ann Macleod of Harris Tweed Hebrides says the ‘worst thing for buyers is being unsure’ and that the tariffs have created uncertainty. Photographer: Emily Macinnes/Bloomberg

When a notorious gang of Ukrainian cybercriminals hit a crucial US Securities and Exchange Commission database in 2019, the regulator quickly downplayed the breach. But newly uncovered information challenges the SEC’s story and signals danger ahead. The system that was hacked remains in place. And the Trump administration is cutting cybersecurity budgets, effectively undermining the ability of government agencies to defend themselves.


Tourism worldwide is being turned upside down by Trump’s second term. Here are nine charts showing the toll on global travel. Trump’s “America First” policies, the simmering trade war, a crackdown at the border and a ban on visitors from a dozen countries have led to tens of thousands of canceled trips. With travelers choosing alternate destinations, the American economy will lose out on $12.5 billion this year, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council—which will widen the trade deficit, because economists count spending by visitors to the country as an export. Here’s a look at the toll the president’s policies have taken on travel, in nine charts.

What You’ll Need to Know Tomorrow

Technology
Everything Apple Plans to Show at Its iOS 26-Focused WWDC 2025 Event
Politics
Musk Blinks First in Trump Feud That Cost Him $34 Billion
Economics
Trump Pressures Fed’s Powell to Cut Rates ‘A Full Point’
Extra Salt
What America’s Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One
Real Estate
HSBC Eyes New Canary Wharf Office as Desk Shortage Mounts
Climate
Switzerland Pledges $6 Million Support for Glacier-Hit Village
Commodities
LME Acts to Shield Aluminum Market From Huge Mercuria Bet

For Your Commute

Safety is not a comfort easily forgone when making travel decisions. According to one study conducted last year, safety concerns were the main barrier to travelers choosing lesser-known destinations; half of respondents said such worries had led them to rethink their plans entirely. Veering from tried-and-true vacation spots — whether in the Hamptons, Italy or Costa Rica — risks not just personal harm, but time and money poorly spent.

Taking Predictable Vacations Is Bad for Your Brain